NFL Picks, Week 17: New-Look Cowboys

The Dallas Cowboys shut everyone up in the simplest of ways: by winning.

It's really our fault. We all look at "trends'' and say "the Cowboys can't win in December.'' Then when they start December with two straight losses, we say "I told you so.''

Except they then ended New Orleans' unbeaten run and followed that up by smothering Washington and, all of a sudden, they're in the playoffs and going for the NFC East championship head-to-head at home against Philadelphia. And now they can win in December and may on into January. And February?

It's the Dallas defense that's doing it -- holding the Saints to 17 and shutting out the Redskins. They're favored by three against the Eagles (home-field) who can score points but also allow them.

Incentive? Philadelphia gets a first-round bye with a win.

Eagles at Cowboys

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Philadelphia Eagles		34
Dallas Cowboys	-3	31

The spread is because the Bengals really have nothing to play for -- at best they're the third seed, at worst they're the fourth. That means going either to San Diego or Indy if they manage to get out of the first round in the AFC. Beating either is problematical.

The Jets? Win and they're in.

Win.

Bengals at Jets

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Cincinnati Bengals		15
New York Jets	- 10	29

Like the Jets, the Ravens get one of the two final spots with a win.

But the Raiders play better against the better teams -- they've beaten Philadelphia, Cincinnati and Pittsburgh, who just beat Baltimore. The Ravens played like the Raiders often do in that game, self-destructing with penalties, dropped passes and the like.

So 11 points is a lot in a "you never know ...'' game.

Ravens at Raiders

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Baltimore Ravens	- 11	17
Oakland Raiders		13

If the Texans win, they finish with a four-game winning streak; get their first plus-.500 season ever and get in if either the Jets or Ravens lose and Denver loses. Or if both the Jets and Ravens lose. In other words, the easiest of those "if, and or but'' scenarios.

Hard to tell who Bill Belichick sits when he doesn't need anything. Or isn't going for an unbeaten season.

Patriots at Texans

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
New England Patriots		20
Houston Texans	- 8	24

Colts at Bills

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Indianapolis Colts	No Line	10
Buffalo Bills		12

Steelers at Dolphins

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Pittsburgh Steelers	- 3	19
Miami Dolphins		20

Saints at Panthers

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
New Orleans Saints	No Line	24
Carolina Panthers		10

Jaguars at Browns

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Jacksonville Jaguars		14
Cleveland Browns	- 1	17

Bears at Lions

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Chicago Bears	- 3	27
Detroit Lions		20

Giants at Vikings

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
New York Giants		19
Minnesota Vikings	- 9	34

49ers at Rams

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
San Francisco 49ers	- 7	24
St. Louis Rams		20

Falcons at Bucs

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Atlanta Falcons	- 2	24
Tampa Bay Buccaneers		23

Packers at Cardinals

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Green Bay Packers		6
Arizona Cardinals	- 3	11

Chiefs at Broncos

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Kansas City Chiefs		3
Denver Broncos	- 13	41

Redskins at Chargers

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Washington Redskins		0
San Diego Chargers	- 4	12

Titans at Seahawks

Team	Point Spread	Projected Score
Tennessee Titans	- 4 1/2	37
Seattle Seahawks		9

Last Week: 7-9 (spread), 9-7 (straight up)

Season: 122-114-4 (spread); 152-88 (straight up)

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