Ohio State Hopes to Duck Another BCS Loss in Rose Bowl

It isn't too hard to figure out what you're going to get in this year's Rose Bowl between Ohio State and Oregon. We know what each team stands for. Ohio State is beyond conservative on offense but stifling on defense. Oregon is loosey-goosey on both sides of the ball but knows how to make plays. The Big Ten's recent run of Rose Bowl futility (their last win was in 2000, by Wisconsin) suggests that Ohio State may be overmatched in this game, but how true is that?

I don't know, but we'll find out early if this is the Big Ten's year.

We'll find out early because Tresselball demands a strong start. Jim Tressel's philosophy is that the other team has a hard time scoring if they don't have the ball. By eliminating offensive mistakes and trying to limit the opponent's time of possession, he hopes to take control of a game early and force the other team to play his way.

As long as Tressel gets an early lead, he's money. But what happens when he doesn't? We all know Oregon can be explosive. What happens if the Ducks get up a touchdown or even ten points?

I went back through OSU's box scores since 2002, Tressel's second season. (I believe you can't tell anything from a coach's first season.) I was looking to see how well the Buckeyes played from behind. What I found astonished me, for two reasons.

The first reason was how seldom the Buckeyes actually fall behind. The second was by how small a deficit qualifies as "insurmountable" for Tressel's team. What's the biggest Buckeye comeback in the Tressel era? Try 10 points, once against Penn State and once against Michigan State. Their biggest comeback against a nonconference opponent was eight points against Ohio; their biggest comeback against a ranked nonconference opponent was seven points, which they did twice. One came in the Fiesta Bowl against Notre Dame; the other was the 2002 national championship game against Miami.

Tressel's basic scheme just isn't suited for playing from behind. It disallows the sort of offensive risk taking which must occur to overcome all but the most modest deficit. Oregon's best bet in this game is to come out swinging, hoping to get up by two scores.

Of course, the Ducks will have to do that against one of the five best defenses in college football. Oregon is talented, of course, but since the season opener against Navy, only Purdue and Iowa have scored more than 20 points on the Buckeyes. Even USC could only come up with two touchdowns.

Then again, the Buckeyes haven't seen an attack anything like Oregon's, either. Chip Kelly didn't win the Pac-10 in his first season by being ignorant. He knows the Buckeyes can be had, and were had by a fairly inept Purdue team. That team almost beat Oregon -- in Autzen Stadium, no less. He knows how Purdue did it and, while he can't count on Terrelle Pryor having a wretched day, his defense is good enough to keep OSU's possessions short. They'd better be, at least, because, while OSU has never overcome a deficit greater than ten points under Jim Tressel, they've also never lost a lead bigger than ten points.

I think Oregon's attack is just going to be too much for the Buckeyes, however. Oregon 31, Ohio State 27.