Arbitration Intrigue Goes Past Lincecum

The figures are in. The haggling has begun. And you can rest assured it's going to get crazy.

Of the 128 players that filed for salary arbitration last week, 44 exchanged figures with their respective clubs Tuesday and 35 remain without a contract for 2010, raising the specter of a hearing next month (Feb. 1-21).

There's just one player that figures to capture everyone's imagination -- two-time Cy Young Award-winner Tim Lincecum, who is in line for a record award -- but plenty of cases are worth watching.

Back to Lincecum for a second.

If he doesn't reach a long-term deal with the Giants, could this be the most compelling salary arbitration case ever? All that hardware in his trophy case and his "Super-Two" status make Lincecum's case seem nearly unprecedented.

Only eight pitchers have won back-to-back Cy Youngs, as Lincecum now has, and only Roger Clemens accomplished the feat at a younger age. Even Clemens had more major league experience at the time.

And then there's this: Lincecum's asking price of $13 million is $5 million more than what the Giants offered, the largest gap between a team and an arbitration-eligible player this year. It's also the third-largest gap in terms of percentage, with Lincecum asking 62.5 percent more than San Francisco offered (only luminaries Skip Schumaker and Jeff Mathis are farther apart on a percentage basis with their respective clubs).

Chances are, there will be a long-term deal or the two sides will find some middle ground for 2010 based on the figures exchanged. Lincecum will walk away from the process without ever meeting an arbitrator, happy with a one-year contract in excess of the $10 million award Ryan Howard received in 2008 or financial security, in the form of a lengthier deal, beyond that.

But because of the large gulf between the Giants and their ace, this has the potential to get very juicy very quickly, as FanHouse's Jeff Fletcher speculated last week.

As for everyone else ...

• The six biggest monetary gaps in unsettled cases are between pitchers. Surprise, surprise, arms are expensive. You know about Lincecum, but it's the Phillies' Joe Blanton who is asking for the second most ($10.25 million) behind the San Francisco right-hander. No one will ever confuse Blanton with a Cy Young-winner, and that big asking price is a function of his service time more than anything else, but consider that the midpoint between him and the Phillies is $8.875 million -- $125, 000 below what Cliff Lee will make this year.

Houston's Wandy Rodriguez is also among those six, and also worth monitoring. He and the Astros are $2 million apart, and he's asking for much less than Blanton ($7 million) despite having similar service time. Rodriguez quietly had a breakout season in 2009, and has been just as important to the Houston rotation as Roy Oswalt over the last two seasons, posting a lower ERA and striking out more hitters since the beginning of 2008.

• Justin Verlander -- also one of the six -- could be hurt by a direct comparison to Felix Hernandez, who has a similar track record and service time. Hernandez will reportedly make $6.5 million in the first year of his new extension, significantly less than the $9.5 million he asked of the Tigers.

As the incomparable MLB Trade Rumors' Tim Dierkes points out, it seems like a mistake, one that might best be sorted out with an extension. Verlander was a warrior for Detroit last season.

• As a policy, the Marlins do not continue negotiating with players once figures have been exchanged, which should leave outfielder Cody Ross languishing in the wind and headed for a hearing despite a mere $250,000 difference between his request and the team's offer. The 5.9 percent difference between the two sides is the smallest of any of the 35 players still without a contract.

The Rays have the same policy in place and, despite being just $300,000 apart with center fielder B.J. Upton, appear headed for the same destination. Upton, of course, could still negotiate a long-term extension, something that might make sense based on his potential, but probably not based on his dismal performance in 2009.

"I'm a believer in this process -- that when you go to a hearing, both sides lose. And I think both sides are culpable. It doesn't do any good to point fingers one way, or vice versa," explained Rays executive vice president Andrew Friedman to MLB.com. "The process is in place for a reason. When there's a philosophical difference with the comparable players and how things fall, this is what the system offers."

Hey, a policy is a policy and it makes sense to be fairly rigid, but maybe an exception should be made in these cases.

• Two arbitration-eligible position players who might be worth extending: How about the Angels' Erick Aybar and the Astros' Hunter Pence? Aybar's offensive improvement last year -- at age 25 -- was one of the more subtle reasons for the Halos' overall run spike. Pence has proven a reliable above-average regular -- with the potential for more -- and Houston should probably grip tight to any young talent it has lying around.

• Other possible extension candidates: Verlander, Rodriguez, the Angels' Joe Saunders, John Danks and Carlos Quentin of the White Sox, the Rays' Matt Garza, the Phillies' Shane Victorino and the Dodgers' Andre Ethier and Jonathan Broxton.

• The elite closers who exchanged figures with their club -- Jonathan Papelbon, Broxton and Huston Street -- all have deals, but three other stoppers do not. The Giants' Brian Wilson, Cubs' Carlos Marmol and Rangers' Frank Francisco still have ground to cover to avoid a hearing. Wilson is asking for the most at $4.875 million. He has as many saves (79) as Papelbon over the last two years.