Al Jefferson Too Good to Get Fouled

Al Jefferson's post moves are weird. So weird, in fact, that in 2007 the Celtics sent tapes to the league to prove that Jefferson didn't warrant all the travel calls he was catching. Refs just didn't comprehend what the young big was up to. Fast forward to today, when Jefferson -- now with the Timberwolves -- is having trouble getting to the line. Is it possible that, once again, Big Al's move are to blame?

This time, the problem wouldn't be that Jefferson falls beyond the realm of human comprehension. Rather, he's so effective at shaking off defenders, there's no one there to foul him when he goes up for his shot. From the Pioneer Press:

Opposing players often fly past Jefferson after a pump fake or one of his patented pivot moves. The lack of contact translates into fewer free-throw attempts for the Wolves' leading scorer. "It's something I've been dealing with my whole career ... not being more consistent in getting to the line," Jefferson said. "It's not a big issue with me, but it would be a lot better for the team if I got to the line more."

Jefferson's also willing to acknowledge that some of this might be his fault:

"One of the reasons I don't get a lot of calls from the refs is that when I ball fake, I go away from guys," Jefferson said. "I don't lean into guys to draw fouls. I haven't gotten that part into my game yet, where I consistently draw the contact and still go up for my shot. I do sometimes, but I'm not consistent with it. It's something I have to get better at."

To return to the original point, though, is it possible to be too good at leaving defenders behind? It would be interesting to look at guards known for their crossovers or first step, versus those whose ball-handling and explosiveness are not at an elite level. Does beating your man off the dribble lead to fewer fouls? Of course, help defenders complicate this picture, and if anything, a panicky help defender is more likely to foul. But say we went to non-shooting fouls. What kind of guard would you expect to draw more fouls in the backcourt or when first entering the lane?