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Rundown of March Madness, Volume 1

Jan 26, 2010 – 5:27 PM
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Brett McMurphy

Brett McMurphy %BloggerTitle%

Roy WilliamsThe college football season finally ended. The last of the 34 bowl games has been completed -- unless another one is certified between now and Super Bowl Sunday, who knows SEC No. 10 vs. Sun Belt No. 3? -- so now the nation can fully turn its attention to the college basketball season.

It's now less than seven weeks from Selection Sunday, when the NCAA officially announces its field of 65. So up until March 14, each week we'll list FanHouse's projected field of 65. Our tournament field is based on each team's results up to this point (through Monday's games) and, as much as we'd love to, we are not projecting any future results.

In compiling this week's NCAA Tournament field, there are eight leagues that will receive multiple bids: the ACC, Atlantic 10, Big East, Big Ten, Big 12, Mountain West, SEC and West Coast.

The Big East leads the way with nine teams, followed by the Big 12 with eight. The ACC has six and the Atlantic 10 and Big Ten have five each.

The biggest surprise, however, is who's missing from this week's projected field: North Carolina (12-7 overall, 2-4 ACC, with a 74 RPI, according to CollegeRPI.com). Roy Williams' Tar Heels have lost three consecutive games and four of five. Another surprise -- although it appears it has become more of a reality -- is that the Pac-10 may only get one NCAA bid for its conference champion and no at-large bids.

Cal (13-6, 5-2 Pac-10) leads the league and has a healthy 24 RPI. However, after that there is a five-way tie for second place at 4-3 in the league between Arizona (60 RPI), USC (65 RPI), Arizona State (81 RPI), Stanford (120 RPI) and UCLA (134 RPI).

Teams that just missed the cut in our projected field: Richmond, William & Mary, Northwestern, St. John's, Florida, North Carolina, Minnesota, Illinois, Wichita State, Notre Dame.

The projected field of 65 as of Monday

Multiple bid leagues:

ACC (6): Duke, Wake Forest, Georgia Tech, Florida State, Clemson, Maryland.

Breakdown: North Carolina is not in this group, but obviously has plenty of time to get there. The Tar Heels do have quality non-conference wins against Ohio State and Michigan State, but their recent 1-4 skid has dropped their RPI into the 70s. It is imperative UNC wins its next three -- Tuesday at N.C. State, Sunday vs. Virginia and Feb. 3 at Virginia Tech -- to get to .500 in ACC play before visiting Maryland (Feb. 7) and hosting Duke (Feb. 10). Come March, this could easily be a seven-bid league.

Atlantic 10 (5): Temple, Xavier, Rhode Island, Dayton, Charlotte.

Breakdown: Could the Atlantic 10 actually get six bids? It's a real possibility. Charlotte was one of my final at-large teams and the 49ers got the edge over Richmond based on Charlotte's win at Richmond last week and Charlotte's current 4-1 run. It will be interesting to see how this league develops over the next few weeks. Tuesday, Rhode Island visits Dayton in a key matchup, while league leader Temple visits Charlotte on Wednesday. A Charlotte victory would only strengthen the 49ers' NCAA hopes.

Big East (9): Villanova, Syracuse, West Virginia, Georgetown, Pittsburgh, UConn, Cincinnati, Seton Hall, Louisville

Breakdown: The good news about playing in the nation's toughest conference is the teams get plenty of opportunities to strengthen their NCAA resume and RPI. The bad news is they can also get their brains bashed in. I'm currently projecting the Big East with nine NCAA teams, but a case could be made for St. John's, which has solid non-conference wins against Siena and Temple. However, the Red Storm's 2-5 league record won't cut it. The Johnnies have a great opportunity Thursday at Pittsburgh. Notre Dame also is a possibility. The Irish's best win so far is against West Virginia, but the Irish visit Villanova Wednesday and still have league games remaining with Cincinnati, Seton Hall, St. John's, Louisville, Pittsburgh, Georgetown and UConn. Good grief.

Big Ten (4): Michigan State, Wisconsin, Purdue, Ohio State.

Breakdown: The Spartans, Badgers and Boilermakers all appear headed for top four NCAA seeds. Ohio State also has a solid resume with victories against California, Florida State, Purdue and Wisconsin. The other league teams have some work to get in NCAA contention. Northwestern, Minnesota and Illinois have RPIs between 56 and 79, so they still have a chance. Northwestern visits Michigan State Saturday and a Wildcats' upset would be huge in their quest for their first NCAA bid. Minnesota can also pick up what would be a big road win Sunday at Ohio State. One of these three -- Northwestern, Minnesota or Illinois -- needs to finish strong or the league likely will only receive four bids.

Big 12 (8): Kansas, Texas, Kansas State, Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas A&M, Missouri.

Breakdown: Like the Big East, there are plenty of opportunities for Big 12 teams to improve their stock or get pummeled. Kansas appears headed toward a No. 1 seed and Texas also could challenge for an NCAA top seed. The jockeying between the teams in the middle of the pack should be fascinating over the next few weeks. By no means are Oklahoma State, Baylor, Texas Tech, Texas A&M and Missouri locks for NCAA Tournament berths, but they will have ample chances to strengthen their causes. Just consider the games in the coming days: Tuesday -- Kansas State at Baylor; Wednesday – Texas A&M at Oklahoma State, Texas Tech at Texas; Saturday -- Oklahoma State at Missouri, Kansas at Kansas State, Texas Tech at Texas A&M, Baylor at Texas; and Monday -- Texas at Oklahoma State. Wow.

Mountain West (3): BYU, New Mexico, UNLV.

Breakdown: BYU, New Mexico and UNLV all have impressive sub-32 RPIs with the Lobos boasting four solid non-conference wins against California, Texas A&M, Texas Tech and Dayton. And, yes, one ugly loss to Oral Roberts. Still those three clubs should be dancing in March. For San Diego State to make the Mountain West a four-bid league, the Aztecs probably need to go 2-1 in their remaining games with New Mexico (Feb. 6), UNLV (Feb. 13) and BYU (Feb. 24). Only the UNLV game is in San Diego.

SEC (5): Kentucky, Tennessee, Vanderbilt, Ole Miss, Mississippi State.

Breakdown: All hail Kentucky. The nation's unanimous No. 1 ranked team this week in both the Associated Press and Coaches' polls. While Kentucky's NCAA ticket is as good as guaranteed, a couple of SEC clubs likely will be balancing on the proverbial bubble during the next month and a half. Mississippi State has good RPI wins against Old Dominion and Ole Miss, but some head-scratching losses against Rider and Western Kentucky. For now, we'll say they're in -- barely. Florida has two huge out-of-league wins against Florida State and Michigan State, but the Gators' RPI is currently only at 61. The Gators visit Tennessee on Sunday, which would do wonders for their NCAA resume. They also have a rare February non-SEC contest on Feb. 13, when Xavier visits Gainesville. Florida also welcomes Mississippi State on Feb. 6, so in the next couple of weeks we should have a better read on the Gators' NCAA chances.

West Coast (2): Gonzaga, St. Mary's

Breakdown: Obviously Gonzaga is an NCAA Tournament lock. Up to this point, St. Mary's deserves to be included in the field of 65. However, the Gaels probably can't afford many more losses in league play -- other than a Feb. 11 visit to Gonzaga -- if they want to remain NCAA worthy.

One-bid leagues:

America East: Maine
Atlantic Sun: Campbell
Big Sky: Weber State
Big South: Coastal Carolina
Big West: Pacific
Colonial: Old Dominion
Conference USA: UAB
Horizon: Butler
Ivy: Cornell
Metro Atlantic: Siena
Mid-American: Central Michigan
Mid-Eastern: Morgan State
Missouri Valley: Northern Iowa
Northeast: Robert Morris
Ohio Valley: Murray State
Pac-10: California
Patriot: Lehigh
Southern: College of Charleston
Southland: Sam Houston
Summit : Oakland
Sun Belt: Arkansas State
SWAC: Texas Southern
Western Athletic: Louisiana Tech

Contact FanHouse senior writer Brett McMurphy at brettmcmurphy@gmail.com
Filed under: Sports

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