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I recently talked about Jon Lester's fantasy prospects for 2010, identifying him as a serious buy in your draft. One of the things I love about him going into this season is the upgrade the Red Sox made to their defense. While it should help the entire Boston staff in theory, it's going to do wonders for one starting pitcher, provided he cracks the rotation.Clay Buchholz was once a much heralded prospect, one that people couldn't wait to see in the majors. After tearing up the minors in 2005-2007, Buchholz made his pro debut as a 22-year-old in that 2007 season. He did a great job in a small sample size, leading us to believe he was well on his way to being a successful starter.
Then 2008 happened. Buchholz had a problem controlling his walks for the first time in his career, which when coupled with an elevated hit rate, led to some ugly ratios -- 6.75 ERA and 1.76 WHIP. The thought was that Boston was going to give up on him and trade him for an established pitcher.
Boston stayed patient, and Buchholz put up much better stats while splitting 2009 between Boston and Pawtucket (the Red Sox Triple-A affiliate). He was excellent for the Red Sox in September, posting a 4-1 record in six starts while compiling a 2.87 ERA and 1.09 WHIP. Still, many thought Boston would pull the trigger on a trade to ship Buchholz elsewhere for a more established player, like Roy Halladay or Cliff Lee.
As of now, Buchholz is still with the team, and he stands to benefit the most from the defensive upgrades the Red Sox have made. He's a ground-ball pitcher, and last year he showed a 54/29 ground-ball/fly-ball split on batted balls. With Marco Scutaro and Adrian Beltre on the left side of the infield, less ground balls should find their way to being hits.
First and foremost, Buchholz will need to strike out more batters. His K/9 rate slipped to 6.7 last year, nearly two full points less than the 8.5 K/9 rate Buchholz exhibited in 2008. Just by doing that, the young Boston pitcher should see better results in his line. If the defense behind him plays at a high level, he should see his hit rate drop some too, which will also help his line.
Tally it all up, and Buchholz makes a great speculative pick late in your draft. The pieces are in place for him to take a big step forward statistically in 2010. Keeper-league and dynasty-league owners should definitely be targeting the potential fantasy star while his value is still low.
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