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Early 2010 Fantasy Baseball Rankings: Top 10 Closers

Jan 29, 2010 – 12:09 PM
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Knox Bardeen

Knox Bardeen %BloggerTitle%

Jonathan papelbonAs you'll see below, getting a group of people to agree on how to rank closers might be more difficult than keeping Lindsay Lohan dressed in public. It's pretty easy at the top of the list -- we all agree on the top five closers, we just may have them ranked differently. The trouble starts when you get past that fifth relief pitcher.

The reasoning might be as simple as differing opinions, but I don't buy that -- even though we typically don't agree on many things as a group. And it's also not as simple as picking closers on playoff teams for the top spots. That only works until you get down to No. 5 where the Royals' Joakim Soria resides. What we do agree on is that the five closers are definitely better than the rest. I would go as far as to say the first four should be placed in their own tier, followed up by Soria and maybe K-Rod, but I am sure R.J. would disagree with that.

When drafting closers remember two things: The first is that closers aren't typically selected early, but when the first one drops, a run will usually occur. Whether it's the fifth, sixth or even seventh round, if you're on the opposite side of a serpentine draft when the first closer gets picked, you may not be able to grab one of the top four. have a strategy in place in case that happens.

The second thing to remember is that typically 20 to 30 percent of pitchers who start as their respective teams closer, don't finish the season in that role. There is a heck of a lot of turnover among closers. If you are drafting some of the guys who have less-than-stellar job security, have a plan to replace them if they lose their job.

Closers
Herrera
Snyder
White
Bardeen
Total
Jonathan Broxton, Dodgers
1
1
2
2
1.5
Mariano Rivera, Yankees
2
2
1
3
2
Jonathan Papelbon, Red Sox
4
3
4
1
3
Joe Nathan, Twins
3
4
3
4
3.5
Joakim Soria, Royals
6
6
5
6
5.75
Francisco Rodriguez, Mets
5
5
10
5
6.25
Huston Street, Rockies
8
7
6
11
8
Heath Bell, Padres
7
14
7
7
8.75
Brian Fuentes, Angels
10
8
15
9
10.5
David Aardsma, Mariners
9
9
12
13
10.75

Jonathan Broxton - Being a fire-balling closer on a playoff-contending team should automatically lock the Dodgers ninth inning expert onto this list. Leading all relievers with 144 strikeouts and actually improving his walk rate and strikeout rate cements Broxton at the top spot. His Average Draft Position is 69.97, placing him in the sixth round of mixed-league drafts.

Mariano Rivera - The Yankees closer is 41 years old -- isn't he supposed to be aging? For the second straight season, Rivera posted a sub-two ERA and a WHIP below one. He also had his highest save total (44) since the 2004 season. Rivera's ADP is 69.70 and he's being taken in the sixth round of fantasy drafts.

Jonathan Papelbon - Once again, Papelbon is near the top of the closer rankings, benefiting mightily from pitching for one of the better teams in baseball. He also sported a sub-two ERA last season and slightly increased his strikeout rate. Some are weary of the spike we saw in Papelbon's walk rate. Even if nothing -- I imagine that won't be the case, and we'll see improvement there -- the Red Sox upgraded defense should help Papelbon dramatically. He's also being taken in the sixth round of mock drafts -- either starting or continuing the initial run on closers -- with an ADP of 69.11.

Joe Nathan - There are two trouble areas among Nathan's stats from last season, and I'm being overly-critical. For the first time in four years, Nathan's ERA climbed above two (2.10). I would never tell anyone to worry about a 2.10 ERA, but I thought it worth mention as it may be directly correlative to his increase in flyball rate and home runs allowed. He gave up more home runs in 2009 than at any other time in his career, except when he was a starter in San Francisco. Nathan is still an elite closer with a superb strikeout rate and a sub-one WHIP. He's being selected early in the seventh round with a 73.93 ADP.

Joakim Soria - The 2009 season was Soria's second as the Royals closer, and he seems entrenched in that role. His 30 saves and 2.21 ERA are impressive on such a sub-par team as the Royals, but his 11.72 K/9 ratio makes him special. I could even argue that with a 32.6 percent hit rate last season, he could be due for am ERA reduction. In mock drafts, Soria is being selected at the end of the eighth round with an ADP of 96.61.

Francisco Rodriguez - As you've noticed with our rankings, R.J. White really can't stand K-Rod. You'll have to ask him specifically why, but it may be his ballooning ERA (3.71), his rising walk rate (5.03 BB/9) or his declining strikeout rate (9.66 K/9). Mock draft participants don't agree as they are selecting Rodriguez in the eighth round (86.35 ADP), but R.J. may be close to convincing me to lower my ranking.

Huston Street - Starting slow, and losing the closers job before regaining it later in the year, Street enjoyed his most productive season since 2006, and other than a few more saves in 2006, his 2009 season was better. He just inked a three-year contract extension cementing him in Colorado for a while, which doesn't seem to bother Street. His ADP is 159.95 which places him in the 14th round in fantasy drafts.

Heath Bell - Finally getting his chance to close full time, Bell took full advantage of the opportunity. He recorded 42 saves in 2009 and an ERA of 2.71. His strikeout rate was solid at 10.21 K/9, but I'm a little worried about his second half ERA spike where he went from 1.69 to 3.90. Bell is being selected in ninth rounds of mock drafts with a 98.05 ADP.

Brian Fuentes - With the move to California from Colorado, Fuentes was supposed to bolster his save totals, which he did. However, his strikeout rate plummeted, his walk rate rose and batters started hitting the ball more against him. Fuentes needs to fix these problems that arose in 2009 or his counting stats will be greatly diminished by his poor rate stats. He's being taken in the tenth round with an ADP of 114.53.

David Aardsma - Being alphabetically first in Major League Baseball used to be Aardsma's only claim to fame. Now with 38 saves under his belt last season, he can brag about on the field accomplishments. One big worry for me is his 53.9 percent flyball rate. he calmed that issue last season with a tiny 4.2 percent HR/F ratio. But, if that ratio climbs in 2010, his ERA could explode. Aardsman's ADP is 152.02, placing him in the 13th round of fantasy drafts.
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