FanHouse Mock Draft Extended Analysis, Part II

I talked at great length (OK, maybe a little too great) in Part I of our FanHouse mock analysis, so much so that we had to split up the article into two posts.

And now, for the stunning conclusion -- OK, that may be a little too over-the-top -- of our extended look at the recent FanHouse and friends mock draft.

Round 9

97. Alfonso Soriano
98. Chone Figgins
99. Wandy Rodriguez
100. Francisco Rodriguez
101. Joakim Soria
102. Elvis Andrus
103. Carlos Pena
104. Brandon Webb
105. Jose Lopez
106. Carlos Gonzalez
107. Raul Ibanez
108. Matt Wieters

You often see Wieters go much earlier in mock drafts as owners bank on him taking a huge step forward. While I wouldn't spend a sixth-round or seventh-round pick to get him, taking him at the end of Round 9 seems like a pretty good balance of price and potential.

Players that miss a full season will have draft values that will be hard to gauge, and that was the case with Brandon Webb. With 25 other starters off the board, it was past time for Webb to be selected, and I was prepared to take him at No. 105 before he was scooped up by Tim just one pick earlier. Rather than reach for another pitcher -- and I felt the value wasn't there with anyone else -- I turned to my middle infield slots. Jose Lopez shook off a slow start in 2009 to hit 15 HRs and slug near .500 in the second half. If his average bounces back, he could easily outproduce the fourth-round Aaron Hill.

I was pretty surprised to see Francisco Rodriguez off the board before Joakim Soria. Rodriguez has rising control issues and declining K-rates, two things that make him a prime suspect for collapse. Conversely, Soria came back from first-half injury trouble to flash progress in his skill set, striking out 11 batters per nine innings throughout the season, better than a one-point gain. I still see Soria as a top five guy, making him a great grab three rounds after the first closer drafted and two rounds after the second and third.

Round 10

109. Yunel Escobar
110. Jason Bartlett
111. Nate McLouth
112. Stephen Drew
113. Heath Bell
114. Alex Rios
115. Carlos Marmol
116. Brett Anderson
117. Miguel Tejada
118. Geovany Soto
119. Michael Young
120. Russell Martin

The shortstops started dropping like flies, but I was lucky enough to grab Stephen Drew, my top option of the four selected this round. He has a power/average upside lacked by any of the other three SSs at this point in their careers and should score a ton of runs for the Diamondbacks.

I like Brett Anderson if you can get him at value, but taking him this early represented no value at all in my eyes. I'd rather have most of the SPs of the next two rounds (just ignore that Erik Bedard pick at the top of the 12th) than Anderson in the 10th. I'd also be much more content being the guy that drafts Heath Bell at No. 113 than the guy that drafts Carlos Marmol at No. 115. Sorry, Snyder.

We also see two catchers come off the board that were the victims of two horrible seasons in 2009. Both Geovany Soto and Russell Martin have the youth, talent and opportunity to bounce back in full, but as a Martin owner of 2009, I can tell you I have more faith in Soto to get it done. If you still don't have a backstop when these two are drafted, I'd plan on foregoing the position for at least a few more rounds.

And of everyone, the best value pick of the round was Nate McLouth by Josh Shepardson.

Round 11

121. Chipper Jones
122. Francisco Cordero
123. Brian Wilson
124. John Lackey
125. Andrew Bailey
126. Ian Stewart
127. James Shields
128. Jose Valverde
129. Huston Street
130. Billy Wagner
131. Torii Hunter
132. Jered Weaver

Now we get to our closer run. Half of this round's picks were spent on relievers, and while I'm not one to jump in the middle of a position run, I like Huston Street better than all others in this round, as well as those in the few rounds previous (Soria excepted). The young Rockies hurler keeps the walks down and the strikeouts high, and after his 2009 he's locked in as the long-term answer at closer. There's plenty to like about Andrew Bailey and Jose Valverde as well, especially if you can get them in the same round as Francisco Cordero and Billy Wagner.

This round's upside pick comes in the form of Ian Stewart. His average was atrocious, but he's like a growing version of Dan Uggla, with more potential in his bat and a better home ballpark. When you consider Stewart went 50 whole picks after Uggla and has the chance to match his production this season, you'll want to be the one that grabs him.

Outfield value strikes again -- there's nothing wrong with Torii Hunter and no reason he can't equal the near 20/20 seasons of the last few years. When Shin-Soo Choo does it at the age of 27, it gets him picked in the sixth round. When Hunter does it year after year, it lands him in the 11th round of his age-35 season. There's still plenty to like about the Gold Glover.

Round 12

133. Erik Bedard
134. Michael Cuddyer
135. Bobby Jenks
136. Scott Baker
137. Matt Garza
138. Trevor Hoffman
139. David Aardsma
140. Roy Oswalt
141. Vladimir Guerrero
142. Frank Francisco
143. Nolan Reimold
144. Ryan Franklin

I don't like the reach for Erik Bedard, on which Knox already touched. On the other hand, I love being able to get Roy Oswalt this low. I spent my pick on Scott Baker, a guy that seems just a small step away from becoming a fantasy ace, but in retrospect I probably should have used this pick on the established ace. Both these pitchers, as well as Matt Garza, are great as No. 3 or No. 4 types that have the potential for more.

Along with five more closers, we saw three outfielders taken at very different stages of their careers. Vladimir Guerrero is at the point where he's no longer even an outfielder, but the full-time DH role should elongate his season and give him more healthy time on your roster. Michael Cuddyer is fresh off a breakout year, and batting behind the M&M boys, there's no reason he can't do it again. Nolan Reimold is one of my favorite sleepers this year; if he grabs the starting left-fielder role in Baltimore (and signs point to that happening), he could be more productive than fourth-round teammate Nick Markakis.

Round 13

145. Brian Fuentes
146. Jair Jurrjens
147. Ryan Theriot
148. Michael Bourn
149. Denard Span
150. Mike Napoli
151. Jason Kubel
152. Chris Davis
153. Chad Qualls
154. Gavin Floyd
155. Miguel Montero
156. Howie Kendrick

We see a little speed come out to play in the 13th, as Michael Bourn, Denard Span and Ryan Theriot come off the board at the beginning of the round. Now that the Chris Davis hype has died down, he could provide great value in the year after.

At my pick, I was ready to take a catcher, as there were two great values on the board in Miguel Montero and Jorge Posada. Examining the rosters of the last three drafters in the round, I saw two of the three had already filled the catcher position. As such, I decided to grab Chad Qualls, who when healthy represents a major step up in talent over the other available RPs at this point. Montero predictably went off the board to Knox, the one owner of the three without a catcher.

I was also a big fan of the Howie Kendrick pick -- with his high average, any step forward at all in power or speed will pay huge dividends.

Round 14

157. Rafael Soriano
158. A.J. Burnett
159. Ryan Ludwick
160. Jorge Posada
161. Kerry Wood
162. Mike Gonzalez
163. David Price
164. David Ortiz
165. Rich Harden
166. Brad Hawpe
167. Neftali Feliz
168. Aaron Harang

With Montero off the board, I quickly grabbed Jorge Posada, the last solid catcher available. The only question mark he has is age, and in that stadium and lineup I can live with that in the 14th round.

I liked the David Price pick. He's a guy that was surrounded by Strasburgian fantasy hype last season after his successful playoff debut. One average season doesn't take away his upside, and upside is something you want from your pitchers in this part of the draft. We know what Rich Harden and Aaron Harang have in terms of a ceiling, and Price's potential ceiling is much higher.

Round 15

169. Nick Swisher
170. Kevin Slowey
171. Leo Nunez
172. Brad Lidge
173. Scott Kazmir
174. Dexter Fowler
175. Jorge Cantu
176. Max Scherzer
177. Juan Pierre
178. Jonathan Sanchez
179. Asdrubal Cabrera
180. Nyjer Morgan

I was devastated to see Kevin Slowey come off the board before my pick, as I'm in love with his K/BB ratio and his potential. His breakout may not come for another year or two, but his upside is worth drafting this late.

Jorge Cantu makes for a pretty underrated corner infielder after seeing a dip in his HR production last year. He could bounce back to a 25-HR/100-RBI level in 2010, and if you still have your 3B slot open late, try and target Cantu.

Knox said I reached a bit on Juan Pierre, as his ADP lists him as a 252nd overall pick. You're going to see that ADP rise greatly in the next month. As a starter in Chicago, Pierre has a good shot at getting back to his 50-plus steal seasons of a few years ago. While he's not the .322 hitter of 2009's first half, there's no reason to see him slip from his previous established level of .290. If you like Pierre's prospects this season, plan on grabbing him a few rounds after Michael Bourn.

Round 16

181. Francisco Liriano
182. Rajai Davis
183. Adrian Beltre
184. Ryan Dempster
185. Rickie Weeks
186. Rick Porcello
187. Jorge De La Rosa
188. James Loney
189. Bengie Molina
190. Carlos Zambrano
191. Jeff Niemann
192. Edwin Jackson

Speaking of late speed, Rajai Davis makes an appearance near the top of the 16th round. Davis was pretty lucky to hit over .300 in 2009, but there's nothing lucky about stealing 32 bags in half a season, as Davis did in the second half of last year. The only thing that could possibly slow down Davis would be his playing time.

Francisco Liriano's upside is definitely worth picking this late, but I went for the stability of Ryan Dempster when Liriano came off the board. Dempster has mastered the move to the rotation, with back-to-back seasons of 200-plus innings and quality K/BB ratios.

Right after Dempster came Rickie Weeks, a youngster on the verge of a breakout year in 2009 before a season-ending injury. I can understand not wanting to gamble on Weeks as a starting 2B, but if you've bypassed the position to this point Weeks gives you a lot of upside. Either way, I'd take him as a bench player and hope he reprises his quick start -- there will always be a need for quality 2Bs in your league, and Weeks could make a great trade chip.

Round 17

193. Jermaine Dye
194. Ted Lilly
195. Johnny Damon
196. Matt Lindstrom
197. John Danks
198. Johnny Cueto
199. Ervin Santana
200. Ben Sheets
201. Matt Capps
202. Clay Buchholz
203. Julio Borbon
204. Matt Thornton

Ted Lilly's injury scared us off till this point, and it may have been a bit unfair to him. I almost pulled the trigger last round before settling on Dempster. Lilly has been a stud since coming to the Cubs, and he deserved better here.

The unsigned Johnny Damon will likely see a downturn in stats away from the Yankees, but the uncertainty surrounding his landing spot has driven his draft stock way down. While you generally like to look for guys with upside late in the draft -- like Julio Borbon, taken later in the round -- Damon works just fine as a reliable fourth outfielder if you've taken chances on OFs throughout the draft.

Matt Capps had a lot of bad luck and a minor injury last year, so it's not surprising to see his draft stock so low. As the favorite for saves in Washington, he's still a closer, and with three seasons of elite numbers before last year's unlucky ratios, Capps has much more upside than guys like Matt Lindstrom, Leo Nunez, and even Kerry Wood. Capps wound up being my fourth closer taken, but the value was just too much for me to pass up. You can never have too many saves.

Round 18

205. Juan Rivera
206. Randy Wolf
207. Tim Hudson
208. Everth Cabrera
209. Kurt Suzuki
210. Stephen Strasburg
211. Kevin Correia
212. Paul Konerko
213. Magglio Ordonez
214. Chris Iannetta
215. Corey Hart
216. Vernon Wells

I made another speed-upside pick with Everth Cabrera here. He's flashed a ton of stolen-base potential in the minors, and he could make good on his 50-SB speed this season as a full-time starter. He's my backup plan in case things don't work out with Drew.

Kurt Suzuki as the 209th pick proves you don't need to spend high picks on scarce positions just for the sake of it. He's not going to become the second coming of Mike Piazza, but Suzuki can give you solid production across the board at a position where some owners will put up with .220 hitters just to grab a little power, or no-power .290 hitters just cause they aren't hitting .220.

Corey Hart is just a year removed from being a very high fantasy pick. Yes, his breakout could have been a two-year deal, but isn't it worth it to spend a very late pick on the guy to find out? If he gets back to the 20/20s, Reggie's pick will be looking mighty good.

Round 19

217. Adam LaRoche
218. Franklin Gutierrez
219. Alcides Escobar
220. Todd Helton
221. Colby Rasmus
222. Octavio Dotel
223. J.J. Hardy
224. Lastings Milledge
225. Garrett Jones
226. Travis Snider
227. Orlando Cabrera
228. Brian Matusz

Adam LaRoche is capable of Nick Swisher production at a fraction of the cost. Todd Helton is capable of James Loney production at a fraction of the cost. J.J. Hardy is just one year removed from being a top-10 SS. Alcides Escobar could have an Elvis Andrus-type season ... with a better average. Like Escobar, Travis Snider and Brian Matusz are young stars with potential.

I went with Garrett Jones in the 19th round. Am I worried his great half-season was a mirage? Of course. But if it's not, he's going to produce so much value here that it's sick. If he can't live up to last season's upside, all I wasted was a 19th-round pick.

Round 20

229. Phil Hughes
230. Jhonny Peralta
231. Joba Chamberlain
232. Martin Prado
233. Daisuke Matsuzaka
234. Trevor Cahill
235. Drew Stubbs
236. Alex Gordon
237. Scott Rolen
238. Chris Tillman
239. Ryan Doumit
240. Marco Scutaro

Upside guys here include: Phil Hughes, the Yankees starter that flourished in relief last season; Chris Tillman, one of the minors' best pitchers heading into 2009 and a potential No. 1-quality starter; Drew Stubbs, a speedster with a solid 2009 debut for the Reds; and Alex Gordon, the former top prospect that is starting to look more Andy Marte than A-Rod.

I spend my pick on Martin Prado. He qualifies at three positions, though you'll likely want to use him at second base. Still, I can throw him in at first or third in a pinch. His power could still be developing, but his high averages could land him in a role as the next Placido Polanco.

Round 21

241. Felipe Lopez
242. Casey McGehee
243. Mark Buehrle
244. Hideki Matsui
245. Wade Davis
246. Chase Headley
247. Yadier Molina
248. Brandon Wood
249. Carl Pavano
250. J.P. Howell
251. Andy Pettitte
252. Rafael Furcal

Mark Buerhle and Hideki Matsui represent safe last-round picks, but I like the gamble with top prospect Wade Davis. Should he make the Tampa Bay rotation, Davis could be the next breakout SP. I also think moving back to 3B will do wonders for Chase Headley, and I'd expect him to be a lot more comfortable at the plate.

I don't know what Minnesota did to Carl Pavano, but it looks like it's working. With a consistently good K/BB ratio throughout 2009, I'll ride him in 2010 until the wheels fall off. I would have loved to have the upside of Brandon Wood, who went one pick before my selection, as well.

That'll do it for our extended analysis. Make Fantasy FanHouse a regular stop through the preseason, and you'll be delighted by all the free fantasy content we overload you with on a weekly basis. Till next time, cheers!