Wiz Shouldn't Count on Gasol Trade Redux

The Gilbert Arenas scandal may not have been so bad for the Wizards. It allowed them to recognize that, Gil or no Gil, they're no longer outfitted to be taken seriously in the East.

Oh wait, they loaded up this summer with Randy Foye and Mike Miller. In the preseason, many important thinkers designated DC and Dallas as teams that could finish anywhere from lottery to home-court. Sometimes, all you can say for sure is that you don't know for sure what's going to happen.

Yet now the Wizards are free, free to clean out their high-priced garage by any means necessary and maybe even turn the page on this era. Arenas's contract will likely not be voided, but the rift between the team and its star guard is at this point beyond repair. We've lately heard reputable murmurs about Antawn Jamison and fellow shipwreck victim Caron Butler welcoming trades, with no shortage of suitors burning up the telegraph lines.

Today in the Washington Post, Michael Lee suggests that moving Jamison to the hated Cavs, as hard to stomach as it might be, could be the Wiz's Pau Gasol trade. As in, a short-term loss that positions them for for the future in a real way. However, it's worth noting that the hype surrounding the Gasol trade may now have swung too far in the other direction.

These days, the Grizzlies are the toast of America. Against everyone's prediction, they're within striking distance of the playoffs in the West; have allowed Zach Randolph to earn his respect as a productive All-Star; and boast on-and-off supernova Rudy Gay and cooler-than-thou second-year guard O.J. Mayo. Perhaps most importantly, that joke throw-in, Pau's little brother Marc, has grown into one of the premier big men in the league. The Lakers actually wanted to retain him in the swap, but the Grizz saw him as key. They also got cap relief from Kwame Brown's expiring, the then-remotely promising Javaris Crittenton, and two Lakers first-rounders -- not exactly free trips to the lottery, but still decent long-term assets if the front office can do its job.

WIthout a doubt, Grizzlies GM Chris Wallace can handle his. He may have delivered a title to the Lakers (like he cares about the big boys jostling at the top) and lost an elite player, but with the writing on the wall, Wallace pulled off an inventive masterstroke -- one that's forced even Gregg Popovich to acknowledge there was sense inside it. Factor in Wallace's willingness to invest in the future of Lionel Hollins because he wants to exercise patience and give the coach room to develop (and develop his team), and you get an executive who, in his own way, may have muscled his way into the Presti/Pritchard/Morey Future Club.

Lee puts forth the scenario that would send Jamison to Cleveland -- we need not rehash the reasons for the bad blood between the two teams, since at some point Soulja Boy enters the picture and sullies us all -- for Zydrunas Ilgauskas's sizable expiring, the intriguing, increasingly loud forward J.J. Hickson, and a first-rounder. He also reminds us that this offer may or may not ever take shape, but would simply represent the kind of deceptively awesome, post-Gasol trade that DC might be trying to swing.

Except here's the problem: Forget for a second that Jamison isn't on Gasol's level, and therefore won't be commanding quite the same attention, or that after Gasol, teams will be wary of having the likes of Marc swiped out from under their noses when they think they're getting a steal. Hickson has shown flashes, especially lately, and could easily emerge as a stud on the right team. Memphis was already rebuilding. They were at best a young team trying to make things work with Gay and Mike Conley; a high pick in the 2009 draft was pretty much assumed, and being planned for.

Gaze upon the Wizards. Their youngsters are talented and fun, but starters? For the most part, Nick Young, Andray Blatche, and the rest look like decent picks by a middling playoff team. You've still got the problem of Caron Butler, a very good player too experienced to be kept around without feeling like he's missing the last chopper out. If teams know that DC needs to move Jamison and Butler, suddenly they lose some of that leverage with either one. The Wizards are lottery-bound this summer, which is cool. But is said pick, cap space, Hickson, and Randy Foye any sort of fast-track to revival?

The sad truth is that the Wizards were too good to rebuild on the fly, and may have -- despite their record -- dug themselves in even deeper for this season. The Memphis model involved having Gay around, making a smart pick with Mayo, and finding a way to secure an profligate stud ready to make amends with the world. The Wizards would be looking more at the traditional "tear it up and start all over again." That should be their frame of mind for fielding offers for Jamison and Butler. Not pulling a Memphis because once upon it happened.

The Gasol comparison shows that they might be get totally fleeced in the process, but that's not quite the same thing as paving a direct path to the future bright. The sooner Gasol/Gasol starts getting put in perspective, the closer the future of the Wizards will hew to all likely logical outcomes.