Fantasy Baseball 2010 Preview: Pirates

With fantasy baseball season on the horizon, it's time to preview each individual team.

The only number Pittsburgh Pirates fans care about is 17.

With 99 losses in 2009, the Pirates continued a streak of misery. For 17 consecutive seasons, Pittsburgh has failed to put a winning team out on the field. The team will enter spring training with only one position battle and one rotation spot up for grabs. But, the Pirates aren't in as good of shape as that sounds.

The team's home run leader finished the season with just 21 home runs, and only four players project to hit double digits in round trippers this season. The Pirates also traded their best base-stealer to the Washington Nationals, and now have only two players on their roster who amassed more than ten swipes in 2009. If the team can't hit for power and isn't fast, how will they produce runs?

The pitching staff was more vanilla than a typical carton of Neapolitan ice cream. This year's projected top four starters ranged in ERA from 3.92 to 4.55, didn't strike anyone out in massive amounts and only notched 35 wins between them. The Pirates 2009 closer is long gone.

That said, Pirates fans can plan on seeing that 18th-consecutive losing season roll out in 2010. But, fantasy baseball owners still might be able to find a few serviceable options from the Pirates roster, but only two are garnering any real hype this offseason.

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The Breakout

In 433 at-bats last season, Andrew McCutchen stole 22 bases and hit 12 home runs. Believe it or not, those numbers are real and have room for growth. McCutchen's walk rate climbed dramatically as the season progressed, leading me to believe that he was learning plate discipline. His fly ball rate also increased as the season went on. If he's going to be more patient at the plate, he'll get on base more often and therefore steal more bases. If he hits more fly balls, he'll have a chance to grow as a power hitter. If everything clicks for McCutchen, he could approach 20 home runs and 40 stolen bases in 2010. Do you have any idea what you call a hitter with that kind of power and speed combination? An early-round draft fantasy pick. Grabbing McCutchen in the ninth round seems like a bargain since it may be the last time in his career you can get him before the fourth round in fantasy baseball drafts.

The Bust

Garrett Jones blasted 21 home runs and stole 10 bases in just 314 at-bats last season. Many people are just adding 50-percent to those figures and projecting 30 home runs and 15 stolen bases in full-time action for Jones. You can see that in his current draft location of the 13th round. Fantasy owners who draft him there are going to be saddened for two reasons. If you look at how Jones performed at the plate as his season wore on, you'll see that his contact rate got worse -- he was striking out more trying to produce home run balls. Take away the three weeks in September where his walk rate went through the roof and you should understand that Jones won't walk 11.2-percent of the time as he did in 2009. You should also consider that Jones' 21.2-percent HR/F ratio isn't real. When that figure drops back from the stratosphere, you'll see his home runs occur less frequently.

The Lineup

1. Andrew McCutchen, CF
2. Akinori Iwamura, 2B
3. Garrett Jones, RF
4. Ryan Doumit, C
5. Andy LaRoche, 3B
6. Lastings Milledge, LF
7. Jeff Clement, 1B
8. Ronny Cedeno, SS

Six of the spots in the lineup are set, barring injuries this spring. Cedeno will have to hold off Bobby Crosby as those two battle for the shortstop position, and Clement will have to prove that he can settle in at his new position.

The Rotation

1. Paul Maholm
2. Ross Ohlendorf
3. Zach Duke
4. Charlie Morton
5. Kevin Hart/Daniel McCutchen

The trio at the top of the rotation are set -- as is Morton in the No. 4 slot, as long as he doesn't implode this spring. Hart and McCutchen -- no relation to Andrew -- will battle for the fifth rotation spot with long-shot candidate, Brad Lincoln, able to sneak into the competition if he really shows off this spring.

The Bullpen

CL - Octavio Dotel
SU - Kevin Hart/Evan Meek

Joel Hanrahan is expected to start the season on the disabled list due to a strained right flexor-pronator. He was expected to get the nod as the set-up man, but now that job will fall to Hart or Meek.

Scout's Honor

If there a was young with the look of a future star in the big leagues in 2009, it was Andrew McCutchen. He gives Pittsburgh perhaps their best hope for a franchise type player in some time. McCutchen has the tools to be an above-average defender in center field, and an impact player both at the plate and on the bases. If you are looking for a player that can provide production in all facets of the game, McCutchen is your man.

-- Frankie Piliere, FanHouse's National Baseball Analyst

The Skinny

• Aki Iwamura had eight stolen bases in the first six weeks of the season in 2009 before being sidelined with an ACL tear. He's being dodged in most mixed-league drafts, and while that's the right decision, you should watch his early efforts. If he starts the season on the same pace as last year, he'll be a very nice, early waiver wire option.

• Remember, not too long ago, when Andy Laroche's name was mentioned in the same breath as Ryan Braun and Evan Longoria? LaRoche was thought to be just as great of a prospect as those two, and he could explode to a certain extent. He'll never be a first-round option like Braun and Longoria, but the power he displayed in the second half shows us that we should have him on our radar.

• There is no doubt in my mind that Lastings Milledge can steal 20 bases and hit 20 home runs. He's injury prone, as was the case with his broken finger last season, and he's been known to make some less-than-smart decisions in his career, but he did progress in the second half last year with his patience at the plate. He's not to be drafted in mixed leagues, but as Iwamura and LaRoche above, add him to your radar screens.

• Octavio Dotel is the new closer in Pittsburgh, and can still blow it by hitters. Unfortunately, his fly ball rate grew as the season progressed in 2009, and he isn't getting any younger. He'll still earn a good number of saves in 2010, but his propensity for the long ball now will not allow his ERA to get too far below 3.25, if that low at all.