LeSean McCoy, Man of Intrigue
First, the harsh reality of the situation: Philadelphia is not a place to rack up rushing yards. The Eagles pass more than any team in the league. Still, Westbrook was able to pile up 1,333 yards on 278 carries as recent as 2007, so it's not a given that an Eagle running back's value will be limited because of the offense.
Westbrook received just over 100 touches last season, and we should expect most (if not all) of those looks to go to McCoy. While the team likely doesn't feel confident feeding the youngster 18-20 times a game, he'll probably average 12-15 carries and four catches per game this season. Considering his 4.1 yards per rush average, that works out to about 50-60 yards per game on the ground. You'll probably be able to add about 30-40 yards receiving per game, giving him a per game total of 80-100 yards.
That's a solid, but not great number for a fantasy back. His real value will hinge on the amount of touchdowns he can add into that yardage total. If the Eagles want to limit the pounding that McCoy has to suffer, they could choose to bring in a bigger back. That would help the second-year McCoy's longevity, but it would probably take away a good deal of his touchdown potential.
If the Eagles don't sign or draft a bigger back for the goal line role, I'd feel comfortable projecting McCoy for 7-10 TDs in 2010. If he's not the go-to option at the goal line, we're probably looking at at 4-6 scores.
Looking ahead to 2010 drafts, there will likely be a lot of buzz surrounding McCoy, as owners get drawn into the allure of owning a possible breakout new starter. There's a good chance this gets him overdrafted in August, as people have visions of Ray Rice 2.0 dancing in their heads. That would be folly.
Target McCoy, but only as a low-end No. 2 running back. If he moves up into No. 1 RB territory, stay away.