Fantasy Baseball 2010 Preview: Marlins

With fantasy baseball season on the horizon, it's time to preview each individual team.

The Florida Marlins of late have been a young franchise that doesn't spend a lot of money to win. That equates to a great return on investment, but hasn't led to a playoff appearance since their World Series title in 2003.

The team did spend some money this offseason, but the kept the money close, bringing in no new marquee personnel and giving long-term deals to in-house stars Josh Johnson and $7.8 million to Dan Uggla. The team didn't see the need to make drastic changes to the roster, hoping some young, homegrown talent can emerge.

Hanley Ramirez is the biggest fantasy name and is universally a first-round draft choice. Three other Marlins are situated within the first 100 picks of fantasy drafts. This team has talent, they're just in need of a few more wins to get over the hump.

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The Breakout

Call it a sophomore slump or blame his 2009 shortcomings on luck, but Chris Volstad had a rough go at it last season and was eventually demoted to the minors. After a 2.88 ERA in 14 starts in 2008, Volstad finished 2009 with a 5.21 ERA and gave up 29 home runs. The ERA can be explained by those home runs or the insane 17.5-percent HR/F ratio. It may even have been the drop in his strand rate to 68.8 percent. The two ratios should come back to normal in 2010, improving his ERA. He's also been working on pounding his sinker down on hitters to alleviate the home run problem. Two positive aspects were his increased strikeout rate and reduced walk rate, and there have been mentions around the team comparing Volstad to Adam Wainwright. While he's not ready for that comparison, he will take some huge strides in 2010 to get back towards the pitcher he was in 2008.

The Bust

Currently, Chris Coghlan is middle to late-round draft selection in fantasy mock drafts, but he's trending upward. I think that this is a bad idea. Most are looking to his second half and seeing seven home runs and a .372 batting average, then predicting a full season of numbers like those. Look carefully at his splits and you'll see that his batting average was fueled by a 40.6 percent hit rate in the second half. When his hit rate was normal in the first half (29.7 percent) Coghlan had a .245 batting average. When his hit rate normalizes in 2010, the bottom could fall out of Coghlan's batting average.

The Lineup

1. Chris Coghlan, LF
2. Gaby Sanchez/Logan Morrison, 1B
3. Hanley Ramirez, SS
4. Jorge Cantu, 3B
5. Dan Uggla, 2B
6. John Baker, C
7. Cody Ross, RF
8. Cameron Maybin, CF

The only real positional battle is between Sanchez and Morrison. However, if neither impress this spring, the Marlins could move Cantu over to first base and run with Emilio Bonifacio at third. Another permutation would be if Jorge Jimenez shows his stuff in spring games. If he's ready to take over at third base, he could force Cantu over to first.

Maybin will start the season near the bottom of the batting order. But, it's no secret that the marlins would rather have him setting the table near, or at, the top. Maybin will have to earn that privilege, it won't be given to him.

The Rotation

1. Josh Johnson
2. Ricky Nolasco
3. Chris Volstad/Anibal Sanchez
4. Sean West/Andrew Miller
5. Rick VandenHurk/Hayden Penn

The top two spots are set in stone. After that, six pitchers will compete for the final three rotation spots, with Volstad, Sanchez and West considered front-runners.

The Bullpen

CL - Leo Nunez
SU - Mike MacDougal
SU - Dan Meyer

Nunez is the closer as camp begins, but the Marlins signed MacDougal for a reason. Whether it was to push Nunez for the ninth inning role or just for added insurance in case Nunez gets injured, is anyone's guess. Word around camp is that Nunez is the man and only he can mess that up.

Scout's Honor

It's no secret anymore than Cameron Maybin has long been one of the toolsiest players in professional baseball. But, as can be the case with many young players with big tools, he has taken some time to develop. Let's not forget, however, that he is still just 22-years-old. Maybin's plate discipline should continue to improve in 2010, but it's still too early to tell if he will be an impact bat at the MLB level.

-- Frankie Piliere, FanHouse's National Baseball Analyst

The Skinny

• A poor on-base percentage has reduced Bonifacio's role from starter to super-utility player, but the Marlins still feel that he can play full time. He's going to get his fair share of at-bats and he spent the offseason working with Luis Castillo who taught him the fine art of bunting for base hits. Bonifacio plans to get the ball on the ground more in 2010 and use his speed to get on base.

• Nolasco posted a 5.06 ERA last year, but improved dramatically in the second half. He went 7-2 after the All-Star Break with a 4.39 ERA and a 10.0 K/9 ratio. Nolasco was also torn apart by an unsavory hit rate (33.6 percent) and an extremely low strand rate (61 percent). When those two numbers normalize, Nolasco will resemble to pitcher we saw in 2008.

• Uggla is going to utterly obliterate your fantasy squad's batting average. He hit .243 last season and shows very few signs that he'll improve at the plate. However, his power numbers and run production are extremely helpful, especially for a middle infielder. Buy Uggla for his power and make sure to grab some ancillary players to help bring up your batting average.

• It's too early to draft outfield prospect Mike Stanton in one-year fantasy leagues. But, dude's hit 67 home runs over the last two years in the minors and should force his way into the marlins lineup at some point this season. Keep an eye out for that to happen and save some FAAB money for when he arrives.

• Not only did Cody Ross belt 24 home runs last season -- a career high -- he also showed marked improvement in his fly ball rate in the second half. Nine of his home runs came in the final two months of the season and he hit .290 over that time as well. Ross is a great source for power late in fantasy drafts and can be one of those draft-day decisions that leads your team to a championship.