Fantasy Baseball 2010 Preview: Twins

With fantasy baseball season on the horizon, it's time to preview each individual team.

The former perennial AL Central champions, the Minnesota Twins finally won the division again in 2009 and reached the playoffs for the first time since 2006, thanks to a four-game winning streak to close the season out and winning a one-game playoff against the Tigers. Most Valuable Player Joe Mauer led the charge and become a fantasy superstar in the process.

The biggest news of the offseason for the Twins is the opening of Target Field, their new open-air stadium. That's right, you can say goodbye to the friendly confines of the Metrodome and hello to what's supposed to be the pitcher-friendly new stadium.

The rival Tigers made numerous offseason moves to try and take the AL Central crown in 2010, while the Twins moved a few pieces around, including adding a completely new double-play combination in the middle of the infield. Will it be enough to keep the Tigers and White Sox at bay?

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The Breakout

Surgery on his wrist in August may have the draft stock of Kevin Slowey pretty low, but he could be one of this year's big breakout pitchers. If you're like me and value pitchers with high K/BB ratios, there may be none better than this young Twins starter.

Only three starters topped Slowey's 5.0 K/BB ratio in his shortened 2009: Roy Halladay, Dan Haren, and Javier Vazquez. This was no fluke either -- in 2008, Slowey was third in the category behind Halladay and Haren. With other names in 2009's top ten K/BB ratios including Zack Greinke, Justin Verlander and Cliff Lee, it follows that this is a very good category in which to excel.

Why were Slowey's fantasy ratios so off in 2009 (4.86 ERA, 1.41 WHIP)? Thank a high .352 BABIP, an unbelievably high .425 BABIP against lefties, and an elevated 1.5 HR/9 rate. In 2008, that lefty BABIP was .327, and a return to that number should bring the fantasy ratios way down.

So what can we expect from the guy that walked just three right-handed batters in 2008? First off, impeccable control. Secondly, a lower home run rate. And finally, a breakthrough fantasy season.

The Bust

Despite falling off in the second half of 2009 (.269, four HRs, two SBs in 238 at-bats), Orlando Hudson was able to secure a contract and a starting role with Minnesota. Good for him -- but not for your fantasy team.

After years of double-digit homers and nice averages, Hudson is likely on his way down. At 32 years old, he has become strictly a groundball hitter (56 percent in 2009). Even if he can retain his nice batting averages of the last few years, we're still likely looking at a .285 hitter that doesn't reach 10 homers or 10 steals in 2010. Since those guys are a dime-a-dozen, it would be better to look for a middle infielder with more upside.

The Lineup

1. Denard Span, CF
2. Orlando Hudson, 2B
3. Joe Mauer, C
4. Justin Morneau, 1B
5. Jason Kubel, DH
6. Michael Cuddyer, RF
7. Delmon Young, LF
8. J.J. Hardy, SS
9. Nick Punto, 3B

Third base could also be manned by Brendan Harris, though both players should be dismissed in normal-sized fantasy leagues.

The Rotation

1. Scott Baker
2. Kevin Slowey
3. Carl Pavano
4. Nick Blackburn
5. Francisco Liriano

The Twins have Brian Duensing, Glen Perkins, and Anthony Swarzak waiting in the wings to replace Liriano should he melt down or get injured.

The Bullpen

CL - Joe Nathan
CL - Matt Guerrier
CL - Jon Rauch

It's quite possible Nathan could miss the entire 2010 season. Matt Guerrier would likely be first in line for saves, but the team could also lean on the closing experience of Jon Rauch. Avoid Nathan in upcoming drafts, and only speculate on one or two of the other guys if/when Nathan is officially done for this year.

Scout's Honor

The Twins are extremely deep in the outfield, and Aaron Hicks might have the most promise of that strong group of young players. He had some struggles in 2009, but this is a guy that requires some patience. The upside is outstanding, and he's still just 20 years old. He has an outstanding arm, a quick bat, and plus speed and athleticism. This a premium tools player who could give you big production at the next level.

-- Frankie Piliere, FanHouse's National Baseball Analyst

The Skinny

• I love me some Kevin Slowey, but Scott Baker is also near and dear to my fantasy heart. He posted another fantastic fantasy season in 2009, with 162 strikeouts and 48 walks in 200 innings. His 15 wins and 1.19 WHIP speak to his stardom, but his 4.37 ERA may give some fantasy players pause. You should definitely look to add this ace in the making.

• Joe Mauer will be a late first-round or early second-round pick in your draft, and he absolutely deserves it.

• Francisco Liriano's yearly return from Liriano-itis is going well thus far. He dominated the Dominican Winter League and looked good in his first spring-training appearance. He feels great, and his prospects are looking better than they have in a while. This could be the year he re-captures that 2006 form.

• While it wouldn't exactly be a breakout year, J.J. Hardy could thrive in 2010 with the change in scenery. He posted two nice seasons in 2007 and 2008, hitting .277 and .283 with 26 and 24 HRs, respectively, before having a 2009 to forget. Another .275-plus, 20+ HR season would put him back on the map and make him a starter-worthy shortstop in your league.