Houston Astros 2010 Primer

In both of Ed Wade's two seasons on the job as Astros' GM, Houston has actually outperformed expectations. In 2008, the Astros won 86 games and very nearly made the playoffs despite allowing more runs than they scored. In 2009, they were picked by more than a few people to drop to the bottom of the NL Central, but they hung around .500 and in contention until late in the season.

The problem is that in those two seasons, the Astros have generally disregarded youth for experience and they've built a house of cards that looks decent on the outside, but isn't backed by much minor league depth. They have a few good prospects for the future in Bud Norris, who should be in Houston's rotation this year, and recent draftees Jason Castro, Jordan Lyles, and Jiovanni Mier, but not much behind them.

And so the Astros enter year three of the Wade plan. Their already aging lineup adds Pedro Feliz, they now owe Brand Lyon $15 million over the next three seasons, and they need another surprising team performance to get them near the playoffs. And if they don't, Lance Berkman, Carlos Lee, Roy Oswalt, and Wandy Rodriguez (who are all over 30) will be a year older when they try again next year.

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Coming and Going

In: Brandon Lyon, RHP (free agency); Brett Myers, RHP (free agency); Matt Lindstrom (trade); Pedro Feliz, 3B (free agency);
Out: Miguel Tejada, SS (free agency); Jose Valverde, RHP (free agency); Darin Erstad, 1B (free agency), LaTroy Hawkins, RHP (free agency); Doug Brocail, RHP (free agency)

Around the Horn

Two Roads Diverge ...
Since taking over as GM in 2008, Ed Wade has maintained that the Astros can rebuild and contend at the same time. To his credit, the team's two drafts under his watch have been pretty decent, picking up the previously mentioned Castro, Mier, and Lyles over the past two years. Unfortunately, none of those three are above Double-A and the Astros are going to need minor league support sooner rather than later. With contract situations looming for aging guys like Berkman (more on him below), Oswalt (a free agent after 2011), and Lee (2012), this year seems to represent a sort of event horizon for them. If they're really interested in restocking the talent in their system by means other than the draft, they probably have to start selling assets this year. If they don't, well, I'm sure the plan is to try and contend with the group they have, plus whatever they can add at the trade deadline. That won't be easy, though, and if they miss this chance to trade some veterans and kick-start the rebuilding process there's a good chance that most of the people running the baseball operations in Houston won't be around long enough to see their "rebuild via the draft" plan come to fruition.

The Last of the B's ...
Feeding directly into that is Lance Berkman's contract situation. His current deal ends after the 2010 season with the Astros holding a $15.5 million option for 2011. Berkman has already indicated that if the Astros don't want to pick that option up, he's inclined to move on after the season ends. Owner Drayton McLane says the team will try to figure out Berkman's situation late in the season, but leaving the situation unaddressed for now it certainly has the potential to become a distraction as the season moves on.

Where are the runs? ...
The acquisitions of Feliz, Myers, and Lyon seem to indicate pretty strongly that the Astros are going to gun for the playoffs this year, despite not really adding anything substantial to a team that was a 74-win club in 2009. One big question is how a lineup that includes Feliz, rookie Tommy Manzella (a career .268/.321/.374 hitter in the minors), Kaz Matsui, and a catching rotation of Humberto Quintero and J.R. Towles is going to improve on that win total. Besides their outfield (Hunter Pence, Michael Bourn, and Carlos Lee) and Berkman, there's precious little offense to be found on this team

Brett and Bud ...
That means that if something good is going to happen for the Astros this year, it's going to have to be the pitching staff that catalyzes it. Having Oswalt and Rodriguez as a 1-2 punch is a good place to start, but it's going to take a deeper rotation than that to make up for their offensive deficiencies. That means it falls to Brett Myers and Bud Norris, two guys on opposite ends of the career spectrum, to keep the ship afloat. Myers is only 29, but he's been in the big leagues since 2002 and he's coming off a hip injury that ended his run with the Phillies. Norris just turned 25 and he's only pitched in 11 big-league games, but those 11 appearances for the Astros last year were something to build on. Despite his 4.53 ERA, he racked up nearly a strikeout an inning (54 in 55 2/3 innings) and could have a bright future with the Astros

Projected Opening Day Roster



2010 Outlook

Really, with their lineup and the back end of their bullpen (things are not pretty behind Lindstrom and Lyon), the Astros should be happy to win 75 games and not finish in last place in the NL Central. Of course, they should also be open to dealing some of the older guys in their everyday lineup in hopes of adding some depth to their minor league system to prevent their stay in the bottom half of the NL Central from extending into the distant future. There's not really any indication that they'll be willing to do that, though, so another 70-75 win season will be a disappointment for this team.