Bucks Look to Put Fear Into Celtics

The Celtics, reeling, visit Milwaukee tonight for the first time this season. The teams met up in Boston back in December, when the Celtics were running the planet (with a 17-4 record) and the Bucks were still trying to come to terms with what they'd drafted, the superlative point guard Brandon Jennings, who had already dropped a 55-point game and won November's Eastern Conference Rookie of the Month award (over notable rivals Jonas Jerebko and ... um ... yeah, not too many great rookies in the East).

My, how the seasons change. Boston now attempts to get a handle on what it's become, battling the Hawks (a team which has swept the Celtics 4-0) for third place in the conference. The C's had gone 11-13 since early January before putting together four straight wins to start March. Those four straight, you ask? The lottery-bound Pistons, the playoff hopeful Bobcats, the lottery-bound 76ers, the lottery-bound Wizards. Not exactly feats of strength, those games.

The Bucks know plenty about fattening up on cupcakes, and that's not a Kelvin Sampson joke, not remotely. Milwaukee, you may have heard, has been on some sort of brilliant tear, winners of nine of 10, 15 of 19. The team has lost once, just once, since nabbing John Salmons at the trade deadline, to the Hawks in Atlanta 10 days ago. But the overall schedule has been a touch suspect. The only notable wins in the 15-4 stretch came against Miami (twice, both in south Florida, what on Earth happened to the South Beach Flu?!), against the Hornets at the Bradley Center, and against the Cavaliers, Saturday, in Milwaukee, in a game in which LeBron James did not play. This is to take nothing away from the Bucks, just to provide context.

That's why this is so huge a game for Milwaukee: this is a chance to prove, to really prove the Bucks belong in this brawl in the middle of the Eastern Conference. It could very well end that the Celtics and Bucks meet in the first round, either through Boston losing its battle with the Hawks and falling to fourth, or by the Raptors retaking fifth from Milwaukee. In such a case, beating the Celtics -- no stranger to first-round struggles; see: Atlanta 2008, Chicago 2009 -- this late in the season could provide a fantastic confidence boost (not to mention the obvious boost in the standings).

How will it get done? Milwaukee's big men will, as always, be key. Brook Lopez of the Nets shredded the Boston frontline last week in New Jersey's sixth win of the season; Andrew Bogut, a different but fantastic pivot, more apt to pass than back in, more likely to turn on scoop under the defender than to power through, will be looking to do the same. The underrated duo of Ersan Ilyasova and Luc Richard Mbah a Moute will work to make things difficult on the glass for the Celtics, and as Boston is pretty bad at taking offensive rebounds of its own, we could see a huge imbalance in on the boards. Considering that you wouldn't expect the poor-shooting Bucks to score efficiently against the the still-elite defense of Boston, winning the glass is nearly crucial.

The key for the viewing audience, though, should be Jennings vs. Rajon Rondo, one of the best perimeter defenders and havoc creaters in the league. Jennings doesn't exactly need havoc to be created around him; as the graphs to the right show, he's been quite a bit more prone to shooting himself out of games and turning the ball over more frequently as the season has worn on. Rondo, the too-long-to-function lead guard for Boston, may only exacerbate those problems.

Or, Jennings could rise to the occasion, and play a controlled, boisterous game. He's quick as the Russian River in spring, and a dangerous shooter if set and left open. The key so often for Jennings is straddling the line between belligerent and explosive. At his best, Jennings is a mess -- that's his game: fast, brash, stunning in its confidence. But when it's not clicking, it's just messy, with the ball clanking off the rim, never getting to its targets, with Jennings huffing, with eyes rolling, with Luke Ridnour coming to the table. Even with Bogut playing like a legend and Salmons providing perfect buoyancy, the Bucks can ill-afford that messy Jennings to show up, especially against a team as good as Boston (slipping or not).

The game tips off at 8 PM ET. It is available on television locally in each market; otherwise, you can catch it on NBA's League Pass service.