Joe Nathan Out: Fantasy Spin

Tuesday morning, news from the Minnesota Twins shook the fantasy baseball world: Joe Nathan has a torn UCL ligament. Though he's looking to try and get healthy within the next two weeks, the likelihood of Nathan missing the entire 2010 season is pretty high.

In terms of what to do with Nathan in fantasy baseball, I'd ignore him for now. Even if he somehow tries to fight through this injury, the odds of him making it through the entire season with the same success he's had in the past are really dire. In the next few weeks, before he's announced as out for the season, I expect some owners to still jump on Nathan sometime in the late-teens or early-twenties of closers in hopes that he ends up making good on the value. That's still fine with me. I'll pass.

As far as the impact on other closers, this news obviously shrinks the elite tier by one. Jonathan Broxton, Mariano Rivera and Jonathan Papelbon are easily the top three now, with Joakim Soria knocking on the door. It's amazing how few the perceived sure things are, which is even more reason to wait on closers. But we've covered that strategy already.

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The last thing to discuss are the potential replacement. I don't expect the Twins to make a trade just yet. Maybe we get into the regular season and the Kerry Wood rumors start to heat up. Until then, though, we're left scouring the Minny roster.

Here's what they have in-house to take over, in order of likelihood:

Matt Guerrier - The 31-year-old right-hander was very solid last year late in the game for the Twins. He put together a 2.36 ERA and 0.97 WHIP. He was equally good in 2007, but had a bad 2008 due to control problems. If those don't arise again, Guerrier may present the best option. His downside is that he's never closed before (just four career saves, but never more than one in a season) and he doesn't strike out hitters at a high rate. Oh, and his FIP was two entire runs higher than ERA, which means he'll likely regress in 2010.

Jon Rauch - He was the Nationals closer in 2008 for a stretch, when he converted 17 of 22 save chances and had a 2.98 ERA. The 6-foot-11 righty is certainly imposing enough to fit the traditional closer model (where you scare the hitter) and he enjoyed success for the Twins last season after coming over via trade. He worked in 17 games and allowed just 13 hits and three earned runs (1.72 ERA).

Jose Mijares - Is he ready yet? Because Mijares has the best stuff of this group. The 25-year-old lefty was very effective last season as a rookie, throwing 61 2/3 innings and compiling a 2.34 ERA and 1.18 WHIP. He did save 19 games in the minors, but that was spread out amongst six seasons. There is big strikeout potential here. Again, Mijares has the highest upside of the group, but it seems unlikely for Ron Gardenhire to press the youngster into this role while he's still developing at the big league level. Take him late in AL-only drafts as a possible big-time breakthrough.

Pat Neshek - He missed all of 2009 after having -- coincidentally -- Tommy John surgery. Over the course of 2006-2007, however, Neshek went 11-4 with a 2.68 ERA and 0.93 WHIP in 106 appearances. He struck out 127 hitters in 107 1/3 innings. He's 29, so if he proves healthy, he may be able to handle the job. Again, here's a good flier for late rounds in large AL-only formats.

Francisco Liriano - This is all me, as there's been no speculation from anyone connected to the organization whatsoever. But I do have a definite thought process here. If he can't find a way to get himself back into form as a starter, why not try it? His velocity has never recovered since having the season-ending injury back in 2006. The transition has worked for others (such as Kerry Wood, John Smoltz and Curt Schilling) who could better handle the inning-at-a-time workload with their arm issues. Plus, the Twins have plenty of starters to plug in to the fifth spot (like Glen Perkins or Brian Duensing).

Don't count on Liriano at all. That was really just myself having some fun (and throwing it out there in case it does happen down the line so I can proclaim myself a genius).

You're probably looking Guerrier as the temporary closer for this season, assuming Nathan is shut down within the next few weeks. I wouldn't be surprised to see Rauch, Mijares or Neshek get a shot, either. I'd slot them below the Blue Jays' guys (Scott Downs, Jason Frasor, Kevin Gregg) right now, because we still can't be sure what's going to happen. At least with the Jays we know it's an open competition.