Fantasy Baseball 2010 Preview: Cardinals

With fantasy baseball season on the horizon, it's time to preview each individual team.

The Cardinals cruised to the NL Central title in 2009, thanks in part to great pitching, a game-changing mid-season acquisition, and the best player in baseball. Thankfully for Cards fans, all the pieces are in place for a repeat, and the team is definitely a favorite to win the National League this year.

Matt Holliday decided to stay in St. Louis, and the $120 million certainly made it an easy decision for the free agent. Holliday also must love the prospect of batting next to the two-time defending NL MVP, Albert Pujols.

The only key piece the Cardinals lost was Joel Pineiro, but Brad Penny was signed to fill his role, and we should expect Cardinals pitching coach Dave Duncan to work a little magic and breath some life into the veteran.

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The Breakout

Colby Rasmus held his own in his first major-league season, and he's only going to get better. He's not going to take that step forward until he conquers lefties, though.

While facing lefties, Rasmus posted a horrific .160/.219/.255 line in 106 at-bats last year. He went .277/.332/.451 against righties. His BABIP against lefties was astonishing: .184. I can understand a young player making poor contact against lefties, but we must expect better than a .184 BABIP in 2010 from Rasmus.

Take a look below at where we expect Rasmus to hit in 2010: second in the order. In the two-hole last year, he hit .284 with eight homers in 296 at-bats, scoring 54 runs in about a half-season of work.

If he can do a little better against those southpaws, we could see his average rise from .251 to the mid-.260s, or even higher hitting in front of the big boppers. Throw in 15-20 HRs and double-digit speed (he has stolen 27, 18, and 15 bases in his three minor-league seasons), along with the high run total he's expected to have, and Rasmus could definitely be a end-game pick that comes through with a clutch season.

The Bust

Sure, a 1.92 ERA and 38 saves may look good on paper, but there's plenty not to like about Ryan Franklin's 2009 performance.

Let's start with the strikeouts: Franklin only managed about 6.5 per nine innings, a pretty mediocre rate for relievers. Next we look at the walks, which came in at about 3.5 per nine innings. Put those two together, and it's a wonder Franklin was able to hold his job all season.

He did it by getting lucky with the long ball (just two HRs allowed all season) and being very lucky in the first half, where he kept the walks in check and experienced some fantastic BABIP and strand rate luck. In the second half, his WHIP came in at a pretty awful 1.58.

Franklin recently celebrated his 37th birthday, so he's much closer to the end of the road than he is to being an emerging closer. Let someone else have Franklin, as an extension of the second half of last season will have him out of the league in no time at all.

The Lineup

1. Skip Schumaker, 2B
2. Colby Rasmus, CF
3. Albert Pujols, 1B
4. Matt Holliday, LF
5. Ryan Ludwick, RF
6. Yadier Molina, C
7. David Freese, 3B
8. Brendan Ryan, SS

Ryan could still miss the beginning of the season, which would give Julio Lugo or Felipe Lopez some time at shortstop to establish themselves as a quality stick. All three should be avoided in normal-sized leagues.

The Rotation

1. Adam Wainwright
2. Chris Carpenter
3. Kyle Lohse
4. Brad Penny
5. Jaime Garcia

Rich Hill will challenge Garcia for a rotation spot. Lance Lynn, who's discussed in the Scout's Honor section, could also be a factor.

The Bullpen

CL - Ryan Franklin
SU - Kyle McClellan
SU - Jason Motte

McClellan could also challenge for a rotation spot. Motte is the pick for anyone speculating on saves.

Scout's Honor

If you are looking for an innings eater for the middle of a big league rotation, Lance Lynn seems to fit the mold perfectly. And, he appears ready to contribute for the Cardinals if they need him in 2010. The big right-hander is not going to miss a lot of bats at the next level but should provide innings and durability.

-- Frankie Piliere, FanHouse's National Baseball Analyst

The Skinny

• Matt Holliday had some sick stats after he came to the Cardinals in 2009, with 13 HRs and a .353 average in 235 at-bats. His OPS came in nearly 200 points higher back in the National League. Hitting behind Pujols, he could be in for a season similar to his 2007 (.340, 36 HRs, 137 RBIs). He's quite a safe second-round pick and should be considered near the end of the first, especially if you think you can grab one of the big four 1Bs in the second.

• There aren't enough superlatives for Albert Pujols. I'm taking him with the number one overall pick in any league I'm in. We should expect Prince Albert to make a run at a third consecutive NL MVP title.

• Chris Carpenter threw 192.2 innings in 2009 after pitching in just five games in the previous two seasons combined. As a result, we really should tread with caution when it comes to the injury-prone pitcher. Couple that with low K rate for an ace (6.7 per nine innings last year), and you shouldn't be considering Carpenter a fantasy ace. Let someone else gamble on his health, while you take one of the young guns.