Fantasy Baseball 2010 Sleepers: Pitchers

I've always said that I wish Webster's would define the word "sleeper" for us. But, similar to millions of people who complain about something without doing any research, I have never looked the definition up -- until today.

There are seven entries, mostly unhelpful to the fantasy baseball community. "One that sleeps," while obvious, does me no good. I suppose I learned something while doing this research, because I had no idea that a sleeper was a support piece in building structures or railroad tracks. But then -- magically -- a ray of hope appeared. Webster may finally be ready to help us out.

4. someone or something unpromising or unnoticed that suddenly attains prominence or value

This isn't a perfect definition for the fantasy baseball world, but it does prove me right, and I love it when I am right. I've always maintained that a sleeper doesn't have to be young and unproven. A sleeper, by definition now, only needs to suddenly attain prominence or value, the keywords being suddenly and value in that sentence. If a 30-year-old outfielder is going to see his value rise in the upcoming season, he's a sleeper, the same as a 22-year-old pitcher who is finally breaking in to the majors.

Now that I am somewhat validated -- though I still think the definition could be worded better for our purposes -- I'm going to share my thought on a few sleepers for the 2010 fantasy baseball season. Some will be young and untested, some not so young and familiar.

The Unheralded

Jeff Niemann, Rays - Not only does Niemann have just 32 starts to his major league resume, but he's completely overshadowed by bigger names in the Rays' rotation. That's going to work to your advantage on draft day, as Niemann should outperform where he's currently being drafted. What I truly like about Niemann's season last year is the gained control we saw between the first and second half. A 1.37 strikeout to walk ratio turned into a 3.48 strikeout to walk ratio after the All-Star Break, and his WHIP dropped over that same period even though his hit rate was a bit inflated in the second half. This all points to a better 2010 season for Niemann where his ERA could drop and his strikeout totals rise.

Wade Davis, Rays - Davis only has six major league starts under his belt, but he performed very admirably in the 36.1 innings of work in Tampa last season. He may not be ready to overpower big league hitters like he did in the minors where he averaged almost a strikeout per inning, but Davis should manage runs well and could greatly improve on his 62.5 percent strand rate. I love his 8.92 K/9 ratio, even in a very small sample size, and think he can make strides in his walk rate as well. A sub-four ERA isn't out of the question in 2010, as well as Davis throws the ball.

Madison Bumgarner, Giants - At 20 years old, Bumgarner has made his way to the big league level very quickly. In 10 innings of work for San Fran last year, he struck out 10 batter and kept his ERA at 1.80. His strikeout rate has dropped since his Single-A days, but he still maintains a respectable level. At such a young age and with very limited major league experience, expect Bumgarner to have a few bumps and bruises after the 2010 season, especially since his hit rate and strand rate will normalize negatively from last season. But this kid is keeper-league gold and could even turn out to greatly assist a one-year fantasy league this season.

The Known Commodities

Derek Lowe, Braves - Sure, Lowe won 15 games last season, but his ERA jumped up nearly a run and a half and his strikeouts fell off dramatically. The loss of strikeouts might be something that fantasy owners have to live with as Lowe ages, but his ERA should reverse course in 2010. It appeared, at times, the Lowe got little run support last year, but a 33 percent hit rate and a 68.7 percent strand rate should head back towards normal levels and greatly aid Lowe's ERA. He's also going to benefit from a few big-bat additions in the lineup -- more runs always helps a pitcher.

Tim Hudson, Braves - This one is easy. Hudson returned from Tommy John surgery to put up some excellent numbers in 2009, although it was a very small sample size. The skills are still intact and if Hudson pitches a full slate in 2010, he'll significantly outperform his current draft position.

Cole Hamels, Phillies - Hamels saw his ERA spike over a run last season and his win total drop by four wins. This is going to cause him to be drafted lower than his former ace-like status says he should. Especially when you consider that the ERA spike was cause by a 34.7 percent hit rate in the first half. His ERA dropped from 4.87 to 3.86 in the second half when his hit rate normalized even though his strikeout rate remained the same. His second half numbers are the "true to form" stats and you should expect that kind of season from Hamels.

Rick Porcello, Tigers - Porcello had a fine rookie campaign, making 31 starts and winning 14 games. It was some gains in the second half that provide hope that Porcello will continue to get better. His strikeout to walk ratio jumped from 1.52 to 2.00 in the second half, which shows greater command as the season progressed. And you have to think that as Porcello gains experience and gets stronger -- he's only 22 years old -- his strikeout rate will increase as he begins to overpower hitters.

Chris Volstad, Marlins - Volstad shined with a 2.88 ERA in 14 starts in 2008, but finished the 2009 season with a 5.21 ERA and even spent time in the minors. His ERA spike can be explained by an especially high 17.5 percent HR/F ratio, which should drop in 2010, lowering Volstad's ERA. You should also be aware that Volstad has been improving his sinker pitch which will help his home run rate and help keep his ERA down.