Hurricane Season Could Be 'Extreme,' Forecaster Says

(March 11) -- AccuWeather.com, which just issued its early hurricane season forecast, not only believes that the 2010 season will be more active than last year, but the private company sees the potential for an "extreme season" with an above-normal threat all along the Atlantic and Gulf coasts.

The forecast was led by chief long-range meteorologist and hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi, who believes that this year will be more like the 2008 hurricane season than the much quieter 2009 season. In 2008, there were 16 named storms, eight of which were hurricanes, including the major hurricane Ike that ravaged the upper Texas coast. In 2009, only two storms (one of which was a hurricane) made landfall, both along the Gulf Coast, making it the least active Atlantic hurricane season since 1997.

The forecast mirrors other early-season prognostications in terms of more tropical activity than last year. It projects 16 to 18 storms (hurricanes and tropical storms), 15 of which are expected to occur in the western Atlantic and in the Gulf of Mexico, potentially posing a threat to U.S. coastlines. Seven hurricanes are forecast by AccuWeather, five of them major (Category 3 or stronger). Two or three major hurricanes are projected to make landfall, with seven total storms making landfall.

The forecast did not pinpoint which region (Gulf Coast, Florida or East Coast) has the greatest likelihood of landfalling storms; AccuWeather thinks all coastal areas have an above-normal threat this season. Seasons that Bastardi believes are comparable to the upcoming one include 1964, 1995 and 1998, all which resulted in devastating landfalling storms. Hurricane Cleo in 1964 killed 217 Florida residents; Hurricane Opal in 1995 caused $3 billion in damage; Hurricane Bonnie in 1995 caused $1 billion in damage.

The National Weather Service is scheduled to issue its hurricane forecast in May. The U.S. hurricane season officially begins June 1 and continues through November, although peak activity tends to occur around late August.

The meteorological reasoning behind the forecast for a more active hurricane season this year includes the expected rapid weakening of the current El Nino in the tropical Pacific. Pacific Ocean warming might seem like an odd factor to consider in an Atlantic basin forecast. But when an El Nino is occurring in the Pacific, the Atlantic hurricane season is typically much less active. Many forecasters point to the development of the El Nino last summer as one of the factors that inhibited tropical formation.

Warmer sea surface temperatures in the tropical Atlantic this year are another factor in the projected storm activity. Hurricane formation is driven by the warmth of the ocean, and sea surface temperatures of at least 80 degrees Fahrenheit are needed for tropical storm formation. Warmer water is one of the key factors mentioned in all early season forecasts.

An expected weakening of Atlantic trade winds is another factor highlighted in AccuWeather's forecast. These easterly winds tend to pull dry air and dust from Africa into the tropical Atlantic, both of which are not conducive to tropical formation.

Hurricane season forecasts are difficult to assess because one major storm in a quiet year can cause more heartache and damage than an active season with no devastating storms.

Unfortunately for Americans living in areas close to the coast, early indications are that the potential is great this year, both in terms of the number and intensity of landfalling hurricanes.