Scouting Notes: The Curious Case Of Madison Bumgarner

SCOTTSDALE, Ariz. -- You have to take spring training performances with a large grain or salt, good or bad. No one is going to be too concerned with an ace pitcher who struggles in mid-March. However, for many young players the spring is far more important. It is a proving ground for them.

For young pitchers like Madison Bumgarner, who is looking to nail down the fifth spot in the Giants rotation, there are a number of questions to be answered. By the end of the 2009 season, many fans began to wonder what had happened to the powerful, front-of-the-rotation-starter type of stuff Bumgarner was said to have. His decreased velocity in his brief big-league stint was attributed to a long season, but now, early in the spring, the questions still linger.

Pitchers are still building up arm strength at this point in the spring, but when a drop in velocity carries over from the previous season and becomes a trend, a little worry is bound to creep in. This is the case for San Francisco's highly touted young southpaw.

Bumgarner was shaky, to say the least, in terms of both raw stuff and results during his outing against Seattle on Thursday. The command was not at its best, but that sort of problem is to be expected in March -- the Giants' ace, Tim Lincecum, has had similar problems with his command. Control and being able to pinpoint all of his pitches is going to be critical for Bumgarner, however, if his mid-90s velocity does not return.

If one huge positive can be taken from his outing it's his pickoff move. While a good pickoff move may not seem all that important, Bumgarner's is at the level of an Andy Pettitte's and especially early in his career could be a huge weapon to get him out of trouble.

Unfortunately, he spent a great deal of time trying to get out of trouble on Thursday. His fastball was up in the zone and sitting at 86-88 mph, reaching 89 a handful of times. Yes, pitchers can absolutely survive at this velocity, especially from the left side, but the fact that he once lived around 92-94 mph means those lower numbers are very much a concern.

So, where did the velocity go? I took the time to go back and look at some old footage of Bumgarner to confirm what I was already pretty certain of. His mechanics have not changed, at least in any way drastic enough to alter his velocity. But there has long been concerns over his cross-body delivery and the stress it may be putting on his shoulder. Bumgarner does not throw like an injured pitcher. In fact, his delivery is rather easy and not violent. At the same time, he does very little work with his lower half and most of his velocity is created by his arm action.

Over time, many scouts thought this might become a concern. Perhaps it is already. He may not be breaking down, but given the extra workload put on his left shoulder with the limited drive he is creating with his lower half, it's possible that maybe he just could not maintain that previously mid-90s velocity.

There will be a great deal of debate about his velocity if it does not return and there's no way to be certain of where that extra heat went. But, let's look at him as what he is right now. If he can build up a little more velocity and live around 89-90 and pitch with exceptional deception like his unusual delivery allows, there is plenty of success in his future. We may just need to adjust our expectations a little.

Bumgarner is very difficult to pick up, particularly for left-handed hitters, and he flashes the makings of a good, tight breaking ball. The emphasis is on flashes though, as he still is very inconsistent in this department. At 78-80 mph with late action, it's going to difficult on hitters from both sides if he can throw it consistently for strikes. His problem right now is he often is forced to go to a still-developing second pitch because he's not confident he can get hitters out with his fastball. He's going to his second or third pitch when he's behind in the count and having limited success.

So somewhere along the line, we'll have to see him gain some confidence either back in his fastball or in a more consistent slider. But right now he's a pitcher who still has a lot to work on. Is he still a very talented prospect? Absolutely. His velocity plays harder than the gun reads, his breaking ball has definite potential, his fastball command is above average when he's right, and his deception is outstanding. If he regains his velocity, then things really get interesting. Right now, his flaws are simply accentuated because he doesn't have plus velocity to lean on.

Frankie Piliere spent the last three seasons working as a scout, most recently in the professional scouting department for the Texas Rangers in 2009. He now serves as the National Baseball Analyst here at FanHouse.