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Heat Hope to Knock Bulls Further Back

Mar 12, 2010 – 10:30 AM
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Tom Ziller

Tom Ziller %BloggerTitle%

Dwyane WadeMiami has a lot to worry about. Despite getting back to a tentative tie for sixth place in the Eastern standings, the Heat haven't played well enough to look like a legit, no-questions-asked playoff team since early in the season. Every win seems to be followed by a discouraging loss; every great half against an elite team paired with a stagnant, blasé finish.

But last week's triumph over the defending champ Lakers may have changed that. Miami followed that surprising win with a victory over superior Atlanta. A loss against defensive juggernaut Charlotte followed, but the Heat came back strong against the Clippers on Wednesday. That makes three wins in the last four games, a nice bounce-back after a late February losing streak had Miami briefly in the No. 9 non-playoff spot.

Derrick RoseRosy Outlook: Derrick Rose tells FanHouse that he's confident the Bulls will sign one of this summer's top free agents -- and perhaps even pry Dwyane Wade from the Heat.

Scheduled for MRI: After being knocked to the ground by Dwight Howard, Rose is scheduled for an exam and doubtful for Friday's game against the Heat.

Heat Suspend Wright
NBA Playoff Matchup Matrix

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But still, the Heat effectively sit on the playoff cusp, with 1-1/2 games back, with Dwyane Wade potentially in the balance. And top-to-bottom, when healthy, it's clear Chicago has the better roster, with Luol Deng, Joakim Noah and Kirk Hinrich augmenting the Derrick Rose attack. The Bulls haven't been healthy, though, with Noah trying to beat a case of plantar fasciitis. Noah's absence has led, in part, to a defensive implosion for Chicago: the Bulls, a top-10 defense all season, have given opponents at least 1.11 points per possession in each of the last five games, a monumental figure considering league average is 1.04. At per-game level, it's nearly seven extra points. That's huge!

Brad Miller just doesn't have the defensive chops -- he hasn't since his first dance with the Bulls -- and Taj Gibson, effective alongside Noah much of the year, can't hold down the fort by himself. Not remotely. The last three opponents have shot better than .600 effective field goal percentages against the Bulls (league average is less than .500), and four of the last five games have seen the opponents rebound more than 35 percent of their offensive rebound opportunities (league average is 26 percent). Now these have been solid opponents -- Atlanta, Memphis, Dallas, Utah, Orlando. But getting beat so thoroughly five times in a row means something. You can't claim inferiority as a regular excuse and still make a playoff run, right?

So that's where the Heat and Bulls sit -- neither can feel terribly confident against the other in the playoff race, Miami due to poor depth and Chicago due to injuries. Neither fan base can feel too confident heading into the summer where each team expects to be major free agent players -- Miami could lose its own star due to the team's struggles, and Chicago (who hopes to lure said Heat star) has an owner who plays hardball and will refuse to "lose" any negotiation. Not quite the Clash of the Titans, here. But it's compelling competition nonetheless; players get desperate with so much on the line, and I think we can count on an impassioned Bulls team, for a change.

The game is set for 7:30 p.m. ET in Miami. Local broadcasts (WGN in Chicago and Sun Sports in south Florida) will carry the matchup. Nationally, you can watch it on League Pass.
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