Is LaDainian Tomlinson Washed Up?

For an aging running back, LaDainian Tomlinson is very popular.

He's already been told by the Vikings that he'd be running back 1A to Adrian Peterson's No. 1. The Jets are also making their pitch for how he could fit in and are willing to give him as much money as they would have paid Thomas Jones.

Both the Vikings and Jets see Tomlinson as one of the great all-time backs -- a tailback with the ability to break a big run and serve as a useful third down back who can catch the ball out of the backfield. But are they ignoring some pretty strong signs that Tomlinson's days as even an average NFL back are behind him?

Tomlinson's 2009 season wasn't just bad, it was historically awful. Since the NFL merger in 1970, Tomlinson's 3.27 yards per carry in 2009 were the 22nd worst among all backs who had 200 or more carries. Over that 40 years, only 28 backs have had a season with 200 or more carries and a 3.3 yards per carry or worse average (in case you're wondering, Harold Green's 2.74 yards per carry in 1993 sets the standard for an awful season).

Tomlinson's drop-off from elite back to below average isn't as surprising as you may expect. Everyone may remember the LT of the mid-decade who was one of the great running backs of all time. But all those carries have taken a toll. Tomlinson already ranks 12th all-time in rushing attempts with 2,880 carries. He's already had more attempts than Marshall Faulk, Thurman Thomas, Eddie George and O.J. Simpson. If he gets another 200 carries in 2010 he would move into the top five all-time, ahead of John Riggins, Tony Dorsett, Franco Harris, Eric Dickerson, Edgerrin James and Barry Sanders.

It's fair to say that around 3,000 carries is about as many as an elite back can handle with only a very few exceptions. Only four backs have ever had more than 3,100 carries in their career. Of those four, Jerome Bettis split time and served as a short-yardage back once he reached 3,000 carries -- compiling yards per carry averages of 3.3, 3.8 and 3.3 yards in his final three seasons. He may have topped 3,000 carries, but by the time he did, he was no longer a featured back.

Curtis Martin did rush for a league best 1,697 yards in the year he topped 3,000 carries. But the following season he averaged only 3.3 yards per carry with a mediocre season that ended his career. Only Emmitt Smith and Walter Payton have shown the ability to put up productive seasons once they've passed the 3,100 carry mark.

If they sign him, the Jets or Vikings are willing to take the gamble that Tomlinson's bad 2009 season and mediocre 2008 are not a trend as much as a blip. So can a back come back from such a bad season? To get a better idea, I looked at the stats of the top 50 backs on the career rushing list.

Of that group, only 24 had a season at age 30 or later where they averaged 3.3 yards per carry or less. Of them, eight (33 percent) retired after that season. Only six of them (25 percent) ever had another season where they averaged four yards per carry or more. To put it in perspective, the average yards per carry for a running back in 2009 was 4.25 YPC -- so what we're saying is that only is only 25 percent of the league's all-time elite backs ever bounced back from as bad a season as Tomlinson's to get back to mediocrity.

If Tomlinson is looking for inspiration, the best example of a veteran back bouncing back from a brutal season may be Warrick Dunn. Dunn seemingly was finished when he struggled to 720 yards on 227 carries in 2007 with the Falcons (3.2 yards per carry). Of course, Dunn did have the excuse of playing for a team that started three different quarterbacks on its way to a 4-12 season (Tomlinson was playing with one of the best passing attacks in the league).

But the next season Dunn did show he wasn't finished by gaining more yards (786) on significantly less carries (186). The bad news for Tomlinson is that that was Dunn's final season.

But most of those 24 backs with a 3.3 YPC or worse in a season picked that up in a season where they were either injured or getting very few carries -- increased risk of injury also comes with a back on the wrong side of 30. Tomlinson is one of only nine of the all-time top 50 to struggle to a 3.3 or worse average at age 30 or beyond with 150 or more carries. Of those nine, only two, Stephen Davis and Dunn, ever had another season with a 4.0 yard per carry average. And both Dunn and Davis then retired after their bounce-back season.

None of this means that Tomlinson can't bounce back and prove to be an asset for his new team -- Brett Favre just showed us last year that he could do things no 40-year-old QB had ever done before. But the odds are stacked very heavily against LT.