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(March 16) -- Imagine 70,000 people trying to exit a sports stadium after a bomb explodes during the game. That sort of mass chaos is precisely the idea behind a new computer program that tries to predict what would happen in a real-world terrorist attack or other emergency involving tens of thousands of people attending a major sporting event.
It's not quite James Cameron's "Avatar" movie, but SportEvac, a computer program sponsored by the Department of Homeland Security, uses sophisticated avatars to simulate how tens of thousands of sports fan might react to a crisis -- such as a suicidal shooter -- in the middle of a crowded sports game.
The program works by using simulated humans, or "agents," to mimic how real individuals, or in this case thousands of individuals, might react during an emergency. The idea is that emergency response officials could use the simulation to help prepare for such an event.
But trying to predict human behavior, particularly when it involves tens of thousands of people, is far from easy, and programmers are trying to factor in everything from drunken hooligans to disabled fans in the scenario, according to those involved in the effort. "We took on an elephant here, " Mike Matthews, the Homeland Security science and technology official who oversees the program, told reporters today in a conference call describing the effort, which is still in its initial stages.
Perhaps the hardest part of creating such a simulation is understanding the dynamics of how large crowds work, which also requires understanding the psychology of how and why people make decisions, such as choosing a particular exit.
"The more we know about people, the better we can program the avatars to do what we think they're going to," Lou Marciani, the director of the National Center for Spectator Sports Safety and Security at the University of Southern Mississippi, which is developing the program, told reporters.
Trying to understand the dynamics of large crowds is not new; a number of researchers have been working on modeling crowd behavior during emergencies. But what differentiates this work is its specific focus on sports arenas.
Right now, the SportEvac is still in what officials are calling version "1.0," and the plan this year is to conduct an alpha test at the University of Southern Mississippi and then a beta test at the Meadowlands stadium in New Jersey. That test will involve scenarios such as an "active shooter," severe weather that requires people to seek shelter at the stadium, and a bomb or other explosive going off during a game.
An initial version of the program could ready for use as early as spring 2011. So far Homeland Security has spent about $1.3 million on the work.
"This is," Matthews says, "a very complicated problem to solve,"
Homeland Security Avatars Simulate Stadium Stampede
Mar 16, 2010 – 4:08 PM
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