The 2010 report will examine vehicle theft data obtained from the FBI's National Crime Information Center for each of the nation's metropolitan statistical areas.
In advance of the yearly analysis, some cities and other stakeholders in California have reported a surge in auto thefts, perhaps providing clues for things to come.
In Fresno, for example, more than 700 auto thefts have been reported since the start of 2010, a 62 percent increase, Police Chief Jerry Dyer told reporters last week. He is particularly concerned because Fresno, once known as the car theft capital of America, had seen a 76 percent drop between 1994 and 2009.
LoJack Corp., a business that deals in stolen-vehicle recovery technology, ranked Los Angeles last month as the top county in the nation with the most vehicle thefts in 2009. Two other counties -- San Bernardino (No. 5) and Riverside (No. 7) -- also helped boost California to the top of LoJack's nationwide list.
In addition to Fresno, which ranked No. 10 on the most recent list with the highest vehicle theft rates, other metropolitan areas in California with high theft rates that will be closely watched by the organization are Modesto, San Diego/Carlsbad/San Marcos, Bakersfield and San Francisco/Oakland/Fremont.
All made the top 10 last year, with Modesto claiming No. 1 in 2009 and 2006.
Outside California, several metropolitan areas along the Mexican border -- El Paso, Laredo and San Antonio, all in Texas, and Las Cruces, N.M. -- have also seen increases in 2008.
Nationally, vehicle thefts have been declining -- five years in a row, to less than 1 million in 2008, the latest year analyzed by the nonprofit crime bureau, which is supported by more than 1,000 property and casualty insurance companies and self-insured organizations.
"Knowing what I know without seeing any numbers yet, I have no reason to think the declines in recent years will not continue for a sixth straight year," said bureau spokesman Frank Scafidi. "We will also see areas that buck that trend."
Officials credit high-tech gizmos in cars, such as anti-theft devices, hot-wire-proof ignitions and built-in GPS units, for much of the decline in car thefts over the past few years.
They also credit stepped up law enforcement, including the use of so-called bait cars that shut down and trap thieves inside when they're stolen. In Arlington County, Va., for example, where a bait-car program started in 2002, use of the decoys helped cut thefts by 56 percent, police said. And convictions of thieves caught inside cars are running at 100 percent, Arlington police recently reported.
Despite the nationwide downward trend, car thieves are still busy. In its report last year, the bureau said thieves steal an average of 2,650 cars every day across the U.S., or one every 33 seconds. Car thieves are busiest on New Year's Day and Labor Day.
At his news conference last week, Fresno's police chief said his anti-theft unit is targeting gang members and chop shops in an effort to reverse the recent spike.
"The people stealing cars are gang members," Dyer told Fresno's KMPH-TV. "They're involved in drug sales, they're arming themselves with firearms and they're career criminals, meaning they have been through the system."
Crime bureau and law enforcement officials warn that, in addition to career criminals, people out of work are looking for quick cash by selling auto parts. They advise car owners to use common sense: Lock their cars, park in a well-lighted area, keep valuables in the trunk, keep keys out of the ignition and never leave their vehicle unattended when it's warming up.
For car thieves, Dyer recommended, "If you're going to steal a car, at least smile 'cause there's a good chance you're going to be on camera."
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