California Democratic Sen. Barbara Boxer's Seat Appears Vulnerable

LOS ANGELES (March 23) -- Voter disgust over Washington politics has California Democrats worrying about what seemed improbable just a few months ago: a chance that three-term U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer could lose her seat this fall.

A statewide Field Poll last week put Boxer's "unfavorable" rating among voters at 51percent -- a vulnerable level for any incumbent, and up from 39 percent just two months earlier. That has Republicans hoping they can do in California what they did in Massachusetts with Scott Brown's January election to replace the late Ted Kennedy: dethrone a liberal icon conservatives love to hate.

U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer speaks during a news conference on Capitol Hill February 4, 2010 in Washington, DC.

Alex Wong, Getty Images

California Democrats are concerned that three-term U.S. Sen. Barbara Boxer, shown here speaking on Capitol Hill last month, could lose her seat in November's election.

If they do, they'll reclaim a seat that has been held by a Democrat since 1969.

"She herself said right after the Massachusetts election that every state is now in play," said Dan Schnur, a veteran Republican campaign adviser who now directs the University of Southern California's Jesse M. Unruh Institute of Politics. "Some of that may have been a way of ginning up her donor base, but it is a realistic assessment. This is probably going to be the most challenging campaign she has ever faced."

Part of the challenge is the array of potential Republican opponents. One, former Hewlett-Packard CEO Carly Fiorina, is a wealthy woman who can finance her own campaign. Another is an abortion-rights man, former congressman and economics professor Tom Campbell.

Abortion rights has been a big issue for independent female voters in the state.

"Boxer has never run against a woman, or a pro-choice Republican," said Jennifer Duffy, who analyzes Senate races for the Cook Political Report in Washington. "And so her sort of standard operating procedure, which is to label her opponent another out-of-touch Republican man, doesn't really work this time against either of them."

And, yes, Duffy said, Boxer is vulnerable.

"I think everybody's vulnerable right now, and the Democrats are a little more vulnerable," Duffy said. "It's just the environment."

Another part of the election landscape: A record-setting money fight for the governor's seat now held by the termed-out Arnold Schwarzenegger.

In that race, billionaire former eBay CEO Meg Whitman has already ponied up $39 million of her own money, with more likely to come. Silicon Valley millionaire Steve Poizner has kicked in $19.2 million for his campaign. And all that's just to win the Republican primary in June to face Democrat Jerry Brown.

If Whitman and Fiorina win the nominations, that would mean the California Republicans would for the first time field female candidates for the two most important statewide races.

But Fiorina, despite her wealth advantage, faces a difficult fight, too. The same poll that showed voters' dislike for Boxer found Campbell held a 28 percent to 22 percent lead over Fiorina among Republicans, with conservative Chuck Devore polling at 9 percent. But 41 percent of those polled were still undecided ahead of the June primary.

And Fiorina comes with baggage. She was forced out last year as Hewlett-Packard CEO with more than $40 million in severance -- not likely to sit well with voters angry over the economy. And as an economics adviser, she embarrassed John McCain's presidential campaign by saying she didn't think either he or running mate Sarah Palin were equipped to run a major corporation.

Still, Boxer's campaign manager, Rose Kapolczynski, acknowledged the tough road ahead.

"We've seen our favorable ratings take a beating in part because of the national political environment," said Kapolczynski, who directed all three of Boxer's prior Senate campaigns. "Voters are frustrated and angry at the pace of economic recovery, and they're taking it out on incumbents. So we definitely need to reach out to those undecided voters who make the difference in California statewide elections."

Also working against Boxer: Her signature issues, the environment and women's rights, are far down the list of concerns for voters facing high unemployment and a stalled economy.

Boxer chairs the Senate Committee on the Environment and Public Works and will likely push her support for developing "green" jobs. She also will cite her role in steering the Recovery Act, which Kapolczynski said saved or created 150,000 California jobs, and the Hiring Incentives to Restore Employment Act, which she said could create another 100,000 jobs in California.

"People are unhappy with Washington because they don't see problems being solved quickly enough," Kapolczynski said. With the passage of the health care bill over the weekend, though, voters "see that the politicians can stop arguing and get something done, and I think that's going to do a lot to change some of that anti-incumbent feeling."

But Rob Stutzman, a California strategist and former Schwarzenegger adviser, doesn't see the voter anger going away that quickly.

"It continues," he said. "It's driven by the environment and her longtime incumbency. I'm not trying to be flippant, but Democrat incumbents don't have anything to say in this cycle that works well. She'll have to hang on for dear life."