Rotational Snapshot: AL East

With Spring Training winding down, most teams have solidified their Opening Day starting pitching rotations. In turn, fantasy owners in deeper leagues will need to know exactly how everything is shaping out. Thus, we'll tackle each division and quickly list the Opening Day starters along with a quick word about those pitchers who might be lesser-known. If you want analysis on the top 3-4 guys in each rotation, you can find it many other places on this site. Just check out the Fantasy Baseball Draft Kit. For now, we're looking deep.

Here's your American League East.

Baltimore Orioles

1. Kevin Millwood
2. Jeremy Guthrie
3. Brian Matusz
4. Brad Bergesen
5. David Hernandez



Share Looking at this rotation on paper is making me queasy, and I'm not even a Baltimore fan. Question marks start right at the top with Millwood. The 13-year vet had his best campaign in years in 2009, despite tying his career-high for home runs allowed and posting the lowest K/9 of his tenure. Throw in the third-highest strand rate and fifth-lowest BABIP in the American League and it's apparent that good fortune was firmly on his side. Moving away from Arlington would normally be a plus, except for the fact that he'll be pitching half his games in Camden Yards, one of the friendliest hitting environments in the AL. Thanks but no thanks except for AL-only leagues. Same goes for Guthrie, whose solid surface stats in '07-08 weren't really all that solid to begin with. Don't expect the world from Matusz in what will be his first full season in the bigs, but he's definitely worth the flier in standard-size leagues based on his pedigree, superb control and above-average strikeout rate.

Brad Bergesen falls under the definition of "serviceable". The extreme ground-baller and control freak was solid as a rook in '09 (3.43 ERA, 1.28 WHIP) but offers virtually no upside. While another sub-4.00 ERA is possible, he'll leave you wanting in the strikeout department. No need to draft him in mixed leagues; you should be able to find him on the wire if you're in need. David Hernandez = placeholder for Chris Tillman. He's had a great spring and he struck out a ton of guys in the minors but I'm still not sure I'd touch him in anything but an Orioles-only affair.

Boston Red Sox

1. Josh Beckett
2. Jon Lester
3. John Lackey
4. Clay Buchholz
5. Tim Wakefield
DL - Daisuke Matsuzaka

Things get a bit tricky once you get past the top three. Dice-K's on the DL but is worth the end-game stash because we've seen what he can do. We've also seen what he can't do -- stay healthy or quit handing out free passes -- so don't get too attached. The 43-year-old Wakefield will start the season in the rotation but that doesn't mean he should begin 2010 in yours. Who wants to be at the whim of a pitch even Wakefield has no clue is working? I wouldn't touch him with a 12-team pole. Buchholz is the real upside play here. He's just 25 years old, has nothing left to prove in the minors, and he can make guys swing and miss. He's also good at keeping the ball on the ground, which should prove a huge benefit following the defensive upgrades the team made this offseason. Sure, he's been maddeningly inconsistent in his brief time as a big-leaguer, but he also tossed a no-no in just his second career start. If Hubie Brown called baseball games, he'd be saying "tremendous upside potential" right about now. Target him toward the end of the middle rounds. Just keep in mind, BoSox skip Terry Francona is toying around with the idea of a six-man rotation. Then again, they'll probably never have all six throwing well and/or healthy at the same time.

New York Yankees

1. CC Sabathia
2. A.J. Burnett
3. Andy Pettitte
4. Javier Vazquez
5. Phil Hughes

The Yanks rotation is what you would call "fantasy-friendly" -- five viable starters for just about every league type. Andy Pettitte certainly isn't what he used to be but he's still a good bet for 150 Ks, never mind the automatic 13-15 wins behind all that run support. That's worth the small hit you'll take in WHIP. Phil Hughes will have his innings capped in 2010 but he should give you nothing short of 140-150 quality frames. For the true believers, he's probably still a year or two away from stardom, though he should post at least an 8.0 K/9 to go along with an ERA around 4.00. His talent alone should be enough for the standard-league crowd. Like Buchholz, think rounds 15-18 and you'll get what you paid for.

Toronto Blue Jays

1. Shaun Marcum
2. Brian Tallet
3. Ricky Romero
4. Brandon Morrow
5. Dana Eveland
DL - Marc Rzepczynski

Marcum missed all of last season after elbow surgery yet still makes for an intriguing pick. Obviously, he's somewhat of a gamble, but if he can be anywhere close to the pitcher he was in '07-08, the payoff could be handsome (average draft position: 329). Ante up. Give Romero props for getting really lucky pitching like an ace early on last year. Unfortunately, he turned into a pumpkin when the clock struck July, with a 5.54 ERA and 1.77 WHIP after the break (16 starts). Could he improve in his second season? Sure he could. But he'll never be as good as he was last April and his WHIP could very well stick in the 1.50-1.60 range. That right there keeps him off the 12-team grid.

Morrow's arm and psyche were run through the wood chipper in Seattle. Toss in prior diabetes-related stamina issues and a sore shoulder this spring, and it's clear he represents substantial risk. Still, he showed so much promise just a couple years ago (3.34 ERA, 1.14 WHIP, 75 Ks in 64.2 IP) that I'm willing to take the leap of faith. Keep him on your watch list. If starting pitching gets really ugly towards the end of your draft, go ahead and purchase the lottery ticket. Eveland and Tallet both get a shot with Marc Rzepczynski shelved for the next month or two (broken finger). Eveland couldn't succeed in Oakland; the thought of him pitching in the AL East is downright scary. Tallet's ceiling is about as high as the one in my crawlspace; he's entirely too hittable. Stay away from both at all costs. Rzep will most likely be back to reclaim his role sometime in early June and is worth the mixed-league DL spot if you can afford it.

Tampa Bay Rays

1. James Shields
2. Matt Garza
3. Jeff Niemann
4. David Price
5. Wade Davis

Not much to say about this group that you don't already know. The top four arms are viable draft picks even in shallow mixed leagues; Wade Davis the only borderline starter of the bunch. Davis impressed big-time in his call-up last season with 36 Ks in 36 1/3 innings. He's struggled this spring and could get sent back down if he runs into trouble early on, but the upside is well worth the late-round pick in 12-teamers. The nice thing about Davis -- besides his knack for the whiff -- is that the Rays are fully prepared to let him toss 200 innings this year. Make it your goal to get a piece of the Rays rotation in 2010. More than one of these arms could be special.