Europe's Emotions Are Mixed on Tactical Nukes

BERLIN (April 7) – As President Barack Obama travels to Prague to sign the new Strategic Arms Reduction Treaty with Russian President Dmitri Medvedev, he is soaking up warm praise from world leaders about his drive to rid the world of nuclear weapons. But one often overlooked point could still spark a rift in NATO in coming weeks: the deeply unpopular arsenal of hundreds of U.S. tactical nukes deployed in Europe.

Some Europeans have been loudly urging Obama to start his noble nuke-scrapping by removing the some 200 tactical bombs the U.S. warehouses in Belgium, Britain, Germany, Italy, the Netherlands and Turkey. These weapons -- gravity bombs rather than intercontinental ballistic missiles -- are designed for use in the European theater. German Chancellor Angela Merkel, a key U.S. ally, vowed last autumn that her government would seek to persuade the U.S. to remove all nuclear weapons from German soil. It's a point that Germany's foreign minister, Guido Westerwelle, never tires of pressing.

Indeed, Westerwelle this week leavened his praise for Obama's historic steps toward nuclear disarmament with a message closer to home. The changes in U.S. nuclear strategy, he said, "open new possibilities for a reduction of the so-called tactical nuclear weapons in Europe and as a result the withdrawal of these weapons from Germany."

But that is not explicitly part of the U.S. plan. Reducing the dangers of nuclear war is just one part of the Nuclear Posture Review (NPR), which President Obama unveiled this week; the U.S. also pledges in the document to maintain a credible nuclear deterrent. And it defers any decision about the weapons based in Europe to NATO, which will meet to discuss the issue for the first time later this month in Tallinn, Estonia.

In one respect, it is only on the surface that the U.S. leaves the future of European-based nuclear weapons up to the alliance itself. The NPR also commits the U.S. to funding an upgrade of F-35 aircraft to allow them to deliver tactical nuclear bombs -- "specifically B61 gravity bombs," which make up the U.S.-owned NATO nuclear arsenal in Europe, says Damon Wilson, a former director on the National Security Council and NATO expert at the Atlantic Council, a think tank.

While the NPR does not specifically address the debate within NATO, Wilson wrote on the Atlantic Council's blog that explicit U.S. commitments to a forward-deployed nuclear force in Europe mean Obama has no intention of withdrawing these weapons from Europe on his watch. The Germans don't like that.

Until now, U.S. policy regarding its nukes in Europe has been divided. Some officials close to Obama have sided with Europe's doves -- which now include conservatives like Merkel -- in calling for their removal. Hardliners at the Pentagon have insisted that the U.S. retain its tactical weapons and focus the debate instead on the much larger number of Russian tactical nukes able to be deployed to Europe (though they are no longer based, for obvious reasons, in the former Warsaw Pact countries).

That confusion in U.S. policy left a vacuum that help fuel a debate in European capitals and led to the decision to put the issue on the agenda of the NATO summit in Tallinn. Now, Wilson says, the U.S. has finally outlined its position and is taking the lead within NATO.

"By the positions it has included in the NPR, the U.S. is putting down clear markers about how far it is willing to go," he says.

What this all means is that NATO could be headed for a turbulent debate over the next few months. The estimated 200 tactical nuclear weapons (some say there are many more) stationed in Europe are what remain of a nuclear force that was meant to deter the former Soviet Union from invading Western Europe during the Cold War. Like its predecessor, the Russian military is thought to have a substantial advantage in conventional military capabilities in Europe and also has an estimated 5,400 or more tactical nuclear weapons within reach of Europe.

Some Europeans argue that time has moved on and Russia no longer poses a threat to Western Europe. "Nuclear weapons as an instrument of deterrence are a relic of the past century," said Claudia Roth, a leader of the environmentalist Green Party in Germany.

If the U.S. is determined to keep its tactical nuclear weapons in Europe -- for which it has the support of key allies such as France -- Washington will have to find a way to defuse an almost certain conflict with Germany's foreign minister over the issue.

"Because of the territory that Westerwelle has staked out, they will have to show that they changed something, even if that change is just symbolic," Wilson says.

Europe itself is divided on the issue. Behind the scenes French officials are angry about the German position. In eastern Europe, where people still remember well the years of Soviet domination, there is also support for keeping U.S. nukes in Europe as a symbol of American commitment.

"In Germany, most people see these weapons as a relic of the past. But for historical reasons, people in Eastern Europe place greater emphasis on the need for these weapons as a sign of U.S. solidarity with Europe," says Oliver Schmidt, a security expert at the German Council on Foreign Relations.

The U.S. will have to balance those conflicting concerns once the glow fades over Obama's historic signature in Prague.