Opinion: Health Care Reform's Bounce Lands With a Thud

(April 16) -- Just before the House passed the health care reform bill in March, President Barack Obama's lead pollster, Joel Benenson, promised that the reform's low public approval numbers would climb "once reform passes" and Americans start to see "the tangible benefits" they will get.

Many other reform backers made the same point. Sen. Charles Schumer, D-N.Y., said that once it passes "it's going to become more popular" because "the lies that have been spread, they vanish because you see what's in the bill."

Others argued that the public's sour view of the legislation was mainly a result of the prolonged and agonizing political process needed to get the thing passed. "The legislation will probably never be as unpopular once it's law as it was when it was being endlessly debated," Mike Madden wrote in Salon.

If this week is any indication, these folks may want to recheck their forecasting abilities.

On Monday, a new Rassmussen survey found that 58 percent say they want the law repealed, up four points from just after it was enacted. And 50 percent strongly favor repeal, according to the survey. A new Associated Press poll finds only 39 percent now approve of the law, down from 42 percent in January, while 50 percent oppose it, up from 42 percent in January.

Nor have the details about the plan that emerged this week been terribly helpful.

First there was the McClatchy Newspapers report Monday that the new law has spawned "mass confusion" among those who wrongly thought many of the the benefits kicked in immediately. The story noted that one insurance call center has been "inundated by uninsured consumers who were hoping that the overhaul would translate into instant, affordable coverage."

Then there was the story in the Los Angeles Times on Tuesday pointing out that the law, despite promises to the contrary, "does not give the federal government broad regulatory power to prevent increases" in insurance premiums. Sen. Dianne Feinstein, D-Calif., told the Times that this was a "very big loophole."

Also this week, The Hill reported that the law will force "taxpayers earning less than $200,000 a year [to] pay roughly $3.9 billion more in taxes -- in 2019 alone." The figure came from the Joint Committee on Taxation, which is Congress' official revenue scorekeeper. The reason is that the law will boost the threshold where families can start deducting medical expenses from their income taxes. Left unsaid in the report is that such a tax would violate President Obama's pledge not to raise taxes on those making less than $250,000.

And finally, there was the story in The New York Times (titled "Baffled by Health Plan? So Are Some Lawmakers") noting that Congress, in its haste to write the legislation, may have inadvertently cut itself off from health care coverage. The Congressional Research Service, according to the report, said the law was "written in an imprecise, confusing way." The article quotes one GOP lawmaker as saying, "If members of Congress cannot explain how it's going to work for them and their staff, how will they explain it to the rest of America?"

The public's view may turn around on reform in the months ahead. But then again, it might not.

Shortly before the reform bill was enacted, Sen. Evan Bayh, D-Ind., said that "this is a bet that some of the misconceptions out there will be proved false between now and the election."

That could very well turn out to be a bad bet, Mark Blumenthal noted in the National Journal, since "Americans will not experience most of the significant benefits of health reform until at least 2013" and because the likelihood that supporters will be able to dispel myths about the reform bill any time soon "is not encouraging."

What does any of this mean for the chances of repeal? Or Republican victories in November? Who knows? I'm not pretending to have any forecasting abilities.

But more weeks like this one certainly won't help lawmakers who voted for the new law.


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