When Will It Blow? Volcano Experts Push for Monitoring

(April 20) -- It blasted a cloud of volcanic ash high into the atmosphere. It effectively shut down European aviation for nearly a week, stranding hundreds of thousands of passengers. It even forced the United States and NATO to reroute flights heading to and from Afghanistan.

But scientists hope the eruption last week of Iceland's Mount Eyjafjallajokull may have also done the world a service: namely, spotlighting both the importance of monitoring active volcanoes -- particularly ones that could affect key aviation corridors -- and the ongoing need to fund such efforts.

J. Quick

Scientists hope last week's eruption in Iceland may spur more monitoring of active volcanoes. The interior of the eastern crater of Anatahan, one of the Mariana Island's nine volcanic islands -- which are not closely monitored -- is shown.

Researchers at Southern Methodist University, for instance, are using technology developed to spot nuclear weapons explosions to provide advance notice for volcanic eruption. Working with the U.S. Geological Survey, they recently received funding to install the equipment along the Mariana Islands, near Guam.

Although the Marianas' nine volcanic islands erupt about once every five years, according to project head and SMU geology professor James Quick, they are among a number of active volcanoes worldwide that -- unlike Eyjafjallajokull -- are not closely monitored.

Moreover, the Marianas' volcanoes pose a great risk to a key aviation corridor between Asia and Australia, and could significantly disrupt thousands of flights, Quick says.

The SMU work involves using traditional seismometers, which measure ground tremors, as well as devices that can detect sound at infrasound frequencies. "When an eruption starts, it makes characteristic sounds at frequencies too low for the human ear to hear," Quick says.

Using infrasound detection, scientists can make inferences about what is taking place inside the volcano -- and potentially sound an early warning.

That would allow pilots to plan routes around the volcanoes in case of eruption and, if landing is necessary, have sufficient fuel to reach an alternative destination. "We have arrived at the point that no one need die of a volcano eruption if properly monitored," Quick says.

The SMU monitoring project, which is funded by economic stimulus money, covers just two volcanoes, but the hope is that the funding will be increased to cover all nine volcanoes. This is important, Quick says, particularly as the U.S. Defense Department expects to redeploy Marines from Okinawa and increase the troop presence on Guam.

Though volcano monitoring in recent years has expanded with the U.S. Geological Survey's National Volcano Early Warning System, Quick says many hot spots still lack adequate monitoring. "What we're trying to do in the western Pacific is what needs to be done globally," he says.