Draft Analysis: Escape From the Top 10

NEW YORK -- Teams that pick in the NFL Draft's top 10 have at least one thing in common: None of them want to be doing it again next year. A top-10 pick (unless you can get one for somebody like Richard Seymour) means you're coming off a bad year.

And teams that pick up near the top every year -- teams like the Rams and the Lions -- start to get sick of it. So with that in mind, let's take a look at the teams that had this year's top ten picks and the extent to which their performance in the first three rounds helps them in their respective missions to be picking much later next year.

St. Louis Rams (1-15 in 2009)

Picks So Far
1. Sam Bradford, QB
33. Roger Saffold, OT
65. Jerome Murphy, CB

Well, they're all in with Bradford, because these days when you have the No. 1 pick, it seems like you're almost required to spend it on a quarterback. It's going to cost them big money, which may be the reason they picked the massive Saffold to help keep Bradford from getting killed. But if I'm Bradford, I'm sitting around wondering who I'm going to throw the ball to. The Rams passed on Arrelious Benn and Golden Tate with the first pick of the second round, and they took a defensive back to begin a third round that saw eight wide receivers taken. Whether Bradford starts right away or sits behind A.J. Feeley, the Rams should expect to be back in the top ten in the 2011 draft.

Odds of Escaping top 10 in 2011: 150-1

Detroit Lions (2-14)

Picks So Far
2. Ndamukong Suh, DT
30. Jahvid Best, RB
66. Amari Spievey, CB

The Lions land an explosive playmaker on the defensive line, an explosive playmaker at running back and a talented defensive back who could turn into an explosive playmaker in the secondary. They're off to a very good start on what would be their second straight very good draft in a row. Suh can be a dominant on-field force and a locker room leader for years. And Best was as good a college RB as there was last year before his concussion problems. One of these years, the work the Lions are doing with their high picks is going to pay off.

Odds of Escape: 10-1

Tampa Bay Buccaneers (3-13)

Picks So Far
3. Gerald McCoy, DT
35. Brian Price, DT
39. Arrelious Benn, WR
67. Myron Lewis, S



Share Think the interior defensive line was a problem for Tampa Bay? The Bucs used their first two picks to draft 598 pounds of defensive tackle. They got a penetrating three-technique monster in McCoy and a space-eating nose tackle in Price, who will help control the line of scrimmage while McCoy wreaks havoc in the backfield. But the speed with which Tampa Bay escapes top-10 purgatory will depend on the speed of the development of last year's first-rounder, quarterback Josh Freeman. To that end, they traded up in Round 2 to draft Benn, a big target who can go over the middle and run like crazy after the catch. A good start for the Bucs, who are smartly operating as if this is more than a one-year instant fix.

Odds of Escape: 40-1


Washington Redskins (4-12)

Picks So Far
4. Trent Williams, OT

Washington traded its second-round pick a couple of weeks ago for quarterback Donovan McNabb, whose 2010 performance will have a lot more to say about the Redskins' chances of playing their way out of the top 10 than will anything they do this weekend. To help shore up the line in front of their new signal-caller, they selected Williams, who was regarded as the most athletic left tackle prospect in the draft. They have three more picks Saturday and could add more if they're able to trade available players such as Albert Haynesworth and Jason Campbell.

Odds of Escape: 6-1


Kansas City Chiefs (4-12)

Picks So Far
5. Eric Berry, S
36. Dexter McCluster, RB
50. Javier Arenas, CB
68. Jon Asamoah, G
93. Tony Moeaki, TE

The Chiefs didn't draft for need as much as they did for best-player-available. And after they shoehorned Tyson Jackson into the No. 3 pick last year because they thought they needed a 3-4 DE, it's good to see the shift. Berry would fit anywhere and will instantly legitimize the Kansas City secondary with his big-play ability. McCluster deepens the running game behind Thomas Jones and Jamaal Charles. They got good value in the third round with Asamoah, who's part of the future of their aging offensive line. And Arenas (nickel corner) and Moeaki are good supplemental pieces at their spots. The Chiefs have so many needs, their best bet is to amass picks and acquire talent. They're doing it fine so far, but much of it is necessarily geared long-term rather than short.

Odds of Escape: 80-1


Seattle Seahawks (5-11)

Picks So Far
6. Russell Okung, OT
14. Earl Thomas, S
60. Golden Tate, WR

The Seahawks filled their biggest need with their first pick, drafting Walter Jones' heir in the big, strong, sound Okung. And in Thomas, they got a playmaking safety that some rated right alongside Berry. Safety was a major need position, and so was receiver, so in the second round they nabbed Notre Dame's Tate, who some say must improve his route-running in order to develop into an NFL receiver. Tate brings a good college pedigree, though, and isn't afraid to go over the middle for the catch. Perhaps he and recently acquired QB Charlie Whitehurst can develop together and be ready whenever Matt Hasselbeck is done. This year, though, they'll be rebuilding under first-year coach Pete Carroll.

Odds of Escape: 50-1


Cleveland Browns (5-11)

Picks So Far
7. Joe Haden, CB
38. T.J. Ward, S
59. Montario Hardesty, RB
85. Colt McCoy, QB
92. Shawn Lauvao, OT

The Browns were locked in on improving the secondary. Even after acquiring CB Sheldon Brown from the Eagles, they used their first pick on Haden, the best corner in the draft. Then they reached at No. 38 for Ward, shocking everybody because QBs Jimmy Clausen and Colt McCoy were still on the board. But the Browns knew what they were doing. They wanted McCoy and knew he'd fall. So they traded up to 59 to take a big-time sleeper prospect back in Hardesty, who should grab the lead-back role from James Harrison right away. McCoy was there at 85 and will try to wrest the starting QB job from Jake Delhomme in training camp, and they added offensive line depth with Lauvao. Cleveland has quietly had a nice, aggressive off-season and they have three picks left in what is so far a solid draft. They could surprise in 2010 if they get decent QB play from someone.

Odds of Escape: 15-1


Oakland Raiders (5-11)

Picks So Far

8. Rolando McClain, LB
44. Lamarr Houston, DT
69. Jared Veldheer, OT

The Raiders know they won't have a top-10 pick next year, because they dealt their 2011 first-rounder to New England for Seymour. Their mission is to push New England's pick as far down the first round as they can. So how are they doing? Well, McClain makes a lot more sense than their recent first-round picks, and if you grade the Raiders on their own curve, he's a nice get. But he's not a value pick, as they probably could have moved down and taken him later. Houston looks like a good second-round pick, a force who can work with Seymour on the defensive line. And Veldheer, at nearly 6-foot-9, fits the physical-specimen profile of the traditional Raiders pick. His small-school pedigree is a potential red flag, but he sure is athletic. If McClain can give them leadership at the MLB spot, Oakland's defense could be one to fear in 2010. Which would be good, because they haven't done anything to address their dreadful QB situation.

Odds of Escape: 12-1


Buffalo Bills (6-10)

Picks So Far
9. C.J. Spiller, RB
41. Torell Troup, NT
72. Alex Carrington, DE

The Bills came into the draft without a quarterback. Two days and 98 picks into the draft ... they still don't have a quarterback. A day after drafting a running back in spite of that being one of their few positions of strength, they passed on Clausen and McCoy to take Troup over Terrence Cody for nose tackle. And then they took a project DE (albeit a 6-foot-5 monster) in Carrington. Given their glaring needs at quarterback and on the offensive line, it's hard to see what the Bills are thinking, or how they plan to break their streak of 11 straight years without a playoff appearance.

Odds of Escape: 200-1


Jacksonville Jaguars (7-9)

Picks So Far

10. Tyson Alualu, DT
74. D'Anthony Smith, DE

The Jaguars stood at 7-5 and in playoff position three-quarters of the way through the 2009 season, but they lost their last four games to tumble into this year's draft top ten. The signing of Aaron Kampman, and the use of their only two picks so far on defensive linemen, tells you what they think the problem was. They do need to improve their defense, especially against the pass. They had just 14 sacks all year as a team. So okay, D-line. But Tyson Alualu? At No. 10? They could easily have moved down, added later picks and still secured Alualu later in the round if they loved him that much. It's one thing to fall in love with a player, it's another to understand value. And given the Jags' financial concerns, Alualu is a pick that makes you think they know they can sign him at a discount -- not one that makes you think they can escape the top ten.

Odds of Escape: 25-1