Opinion: The GOP's Short-Sighted Immigration Strategy

(April 27) -- America has always been a country of immigrants. But this historical legacy notwithstanding, it's also been a country that engaged in its fair share of anti-immigration hysteria at times of economic and social uncertainty.

Case in point, the passage last week of legislation in Arizona that would make illegal immigration a state crime and would allow law enforcement officials to demand proof of citizenship based on simply a "reasonable suspicion" that someone is an illegal immigrant. If unable to immediately provide proof, individuals -- even U.S. citizens -- can be arrested by the police.

Pushed through by a Republican state legislature and a GOP governor, the law is a virtual recipe for police intimidation and harassment of both legal and illegal Hispanic residents. After all, in a state with a significant number of illegal immigrants from Mexico, what exactly is "reasonable suspicion" for being an illegal other than being Hispanic?

While the Arizona bill stands on dubious constitutional grounds and has a good chance of being thrown out in court before it is even implemented, the political implications, particularly for Republicans, may resonate far longer.

Proponents of the legislation in Arizona have declared the immigration issue to be one of vital importance. But from 2008 to 2009, the undocumented immigrant population in Arizona actually fell by 100,000. And with the state's economy still underperforming, it's unlikely those numbers have seen a significant reversal.

This is not to suggest that the immigration situation in Arizona is not a serious one -- which demands greater federal attention. But it's very hard to make the case that the draconian measures called for in the Arizona bill are necessary or would even be effective.

Instead, the urgency of the bill seems to be largely political. Indeed, only four years ago Sen. John McCain , R-Ariz., along with much of the state's political establishment, strongly opposed a statewide proposition to prevent illegal immigrants from receiving public benefits. It passed anyway. Now with McCain and the state's Republican governor Jan Brewer facing tough primary fights from their conservative wing, both are on board with this new bill.

In the short term, this might bring significant political benefit to McCain and Brewer -- and other national Republicans -- particularly in a year when angry white voters seem once again to be the dominant demographic group.

But over the long term, the GOP seems likely to have dealt itself a far more grievous blow with Hispanic voters.

Hispanics are today the country's fastest-growing minority group, and only about half of the babies born in America today are of white, European descent. By 2042 the U.S. will likely be a minority-majority country, with whites making up less than half of the population. So, capturing the votes of Hispanics and African-Americans and other voters of color will be of critical importance for both political parties.

And while Democrats continue to intensify their support in these communities (in 2008, two-thirds of Hispanics and more than 96 percent of African-Americans cast a vote for Barack Obama), Republicans are taking the opposite approach -- seeking the support of the same conservative, white and religious voters that sparked their rise to power in the '80s and '90s. This hardly seems like a smart strategy for long-term political growth.

The GOP's experience in California in the mid 1990s should serve as a cautionary tale. In 1994, conservatives pushed through Proposition 187, which prevented illegal immigrants from receiving public services. It paved the way for then-Gov. Pete Wilson to get re-elected, but since then the move has done enduring damage to the party's image among Hispanics in the state and across the country. It's not hard to imagine the same scenario playing out in Arizona.

Some in the GOP acknowledge that the strategy of scapegoating minorities to build support among white voters has been problematic. At a speech at DePaul University last week, RNC head Michael Steele noted that "for the last 40-plus years" Republicans "had a 'Southern Strategy' that alienated many minority voters by focusing on the white male vote in the South."

Of course, it wasn't just the South, but also the white vote across the country to which the GOP catered. As Steele said, African-Americans, "don't have a reason to vote for Republican candidates."

It's quite possible that the Arizona immigration bill will have the same impact with Hispanics. And while 20 to 30 years ago it might not have mattered much for the GOP, the consequences of this latest measure could bring profound and lasting national damage to Republicans.


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