Seeking Shahzad's Pakistani Connection

PESHAWAR, Pakistan (May 7) --The Pakistani investigation into Faisal Shahzad has moved into a critical phase as authorities try to determine which militant groups could have been involved in preparing the 30-year old Connecticut resident for his alleged attempt to bomb Times Square.

Investigators here admit the case is complex and could lead to many more arrests.

Speaking on condition of anonymity, they say they now believe at least three jihadist organizations could have been involved at various stages of Shahzad's suspected journey from an educated, moderate Muslim to Islamic radical. The suspect groups are the Lashkar-e-Taiba, the Jaish-e-Mohammad and the Pakistani Taliban.

If links to Shahzad are proven, it could force the Pakistani government to admit the danger militancy in its country poses, not only within its borders but also to the wider world. It would also put more pressure on authorities to crack down on groups it has so far been unwilling to reign in -- like the Lashkar-e-Taiba and Jaish-e-Mohammad. Both have been officially banned but unofficially allowed to continue their activities.

The confluence of these groups has created a web that is ensnaring an increasing number of young people. It's also become big business here, with all the hallmarks of specialization and corporatism.

A look at the three groups that might have played roles in Shahzad's alleged journey to radicalization:

1. The Lashkar-e-Taiba -- Arguably the largest and most organized Islamic fundamentalist outfit in the world. The organization was set up by Pakistani intelligence to fight a proxy war in Kashmir but in recent years expanded its operations to target Indian civilians. Most recently it was blamed for the carnage in Mumbai in December 2008. And its jihad has recently gone global.

Indications that Shahzad was in contact with the Lashkar-e-Taiba provide a possible answer to one question: How could a liberal Muslim turn extremist? Its area of expertise is ideological indoctrination. Its front organization, the Jamaat ud Dawa -- based in Muridke, north of Lahore in Pakistan's Punjabi heartland -- is respected in Pakistan for its charity work and educational institutions.

On a visit to the sprawling compound in November, one of the organization's leaders, Jaffer Usman, told AOL News that the vast majority of its students come from "aristocratic" families, families like Shahzad's.

The key to the Lashkar-e-Taiba's success with educated Muslims is its approach to indoctrination. The Jamaat ud Dawa adopts an intellectual strategy toward its enemies. Taliban and al-Qaida leaders often speak of destroying the infidels, but men like Usman outline a carefully constructed argument, based on their reading of history and interpretation of the Koran, for why Muslims around the world should "rise up against injustice."

Their argument would resonate with men like Shahzad. Its subtlety appeals to the educated mind. Holy war, however, is a central part of what is taught at the schools, Usman confesses. It is, in his own words, "a central part of Islam."

2. The Jaish-e-Mohammad -- This Kashmiri militant group also has deep roots in the Pakistani security establishment. It was established in 1990 and has been active in the global jihad for years. In 2007, the group fractured after a bloody confrontation at a mosque in the Pakistani capital Islamabad turned some elements against the Pakistani state. One faction, led by a senior commander, shifted its operations to North Waziristan, where the members developed close ties to other militant groups, including the Pakistani Taliban and al-Qaida.

Shahzad's alleged connection to the Jaish-e-Mohammad is possibly the second link in the chain of events leading to the attempted bombing in Times Square. The group has been implicated in a number of attacks in foreign countries. In 2001, it teamed with the Lashkar-e-Taiba to attack the Indian Parliament, killing seven. That brought India and Pakistan, two nuclear-armed nations, to the brink of war.

The Jaish-e-Mohammad also was implicated in a failed 2009 plot to bomb a synagogue in New York. Most recently, five American Muslim men linked to the group were arrested in Pakistan in December after authorities learned they had traveled to Pakistan to offer their assistance in carrying out jihadi attacks on U.S. soil.

The group's desire to hit America on its home turf is well-known. Shahzad and Mohammad Rehan, alleged to be a member of the Jaish-e-Mohammad, took a trip together in July, first from Karachi to Peshawar and then onto the tribal areas where Shahzad has reportedly confessed to receiving rudimentary bomb-making training.

3. The Pakistani Taliban -- It plays an incidental role as an outsourcing outfit with specialized skills in bomb-making and facilities at which recruits can train in jihad's destructive arts. Initial investigations indicate the Taliban provided Shahzad the technical skills he needed to carry out the attack, the final step of his transformation.

It remains unclear whether one or several groups in Pakistan continued to guide Shahzad after he returned to the U.S. from Pakistan. Phone records show that he was in contact with people in Pakistan in the weeks and days leading up to the failed attack. But the amateurish nature of the plan makes it just as likely that he developed and executed it on his own.

Regardless, the salient element of the mission was the apparent involvement of more than one militant group in Pakistan. According to a senior U.S. official quoted in The New York Times, Shahzad "appears to be at the intersection of a whole lot of strands."

Separating those strands has become Pakistan's most pressing challenge. The U.S. administration has already begun to put pressure on Pakistani authorities to expand its military offensives into North Waziristan, where virtually all of Pakistan's militant groups have some kind of presence. But facing down its most powerful jihadists, particularly now that they have formed an alliance, could prove deadly.