How Would Early Season Hurricane Affect Oil in Gulf?

(May 13) -- The interaction of a hurricane and a large body of water with a massive oil slick is uncharted territory, but it might not be for much longer.

Not only is 4 million gallons of crude oil sitting on the Gulf of Mexico, with more pouring in by the day, but the gulf is relatively prone to hurricanes early in the season, which begins in less than three weeks. This convergence -- like wind blowing volcanic ash from Iceland to Africa -- comes during a season when forecasters expect more hurricanes than normal.

If a hurricane were to occur while the oil is still pouring into the water, the potential dispersion of the oil on the surface would be wide-ranging, anywhere along the Gulf Coast to the Florida Keys to the Atlantic Seaboard.

The oil, of course, would not be sitting in one uniform slick on the surface of water being churned by a hurricane; the oil would be mixed with the turbulent water. Normal containment methods would be futile, and the powerful wind and movement of the sea associated with the hurricane would push the oil-contaminated water in one direction or another. Since the oil is mixed and spread out by the rough seas, the amount pushed in a given direction might not be as great as it would be in less turbulent water, but, depending on the track of the hurricane, some oil could be pushed westward toward the Texas coast or eastward toward the Loop Current.

The Loop Current connects the Gulf of Mexico with the Gulf Stream along the East Coast, and it passes through the Florida Keys. In other words, a Gulf of Mexico hurricane would increase the threat of oil exposure for the Keys and the East Coast.

A storm making landfall along the Gulf Coast would have the potential to deposit the oil fairly far inland -- much farther than it would be able to travel by normal wind and wave conditions.

The water and oil directly underneath a hurricane would be like a vinegar-and-oil dressing being vigorously mixed. Even if the shaking of the ocean were intense enough to merge the water and oil, the liquids would separate again once the water was forced ashore by a storm making landfall -- just as vinegar and water separate after the mixing stops at the dinner table.

Hurricanes are preceded by a storm surge, which is a temporary elevation of the sea level caused by the approach of the large storm. The surge with a hurricane can range from a just a couple of feet to 15 or 17 feet, with powerful wind waves on top of that. A significant storm surge would allow oil to be deposited a couple of miles inland -- even farther if the storm surge is forced into a narrowing bay, such as the Mobile Bay.

While a hurricane could spread the oil far and wide, hurricanes are not that common during the first part of the season, which officially begins on June 1. Hurricane season is typically more active during the latter part of the summer.

While that might be some comfort to gulf-area residents, the good news comes with two caveats. When hurricanes occur early in the season, the Gulf of Mexico is the most common place for formation, and most of these travel northward through the gulf , increasing the likelihood that they would move over the spill. In addition, dramatic warming of gulf sea surface temperatures has taken place during the past month -- after having been cooler than normal from late winter through the first part of spring.

Warm water, of course, is the fuel for potential hurricanes -- which are a big enough threat along the Gulf Coast under normal circumstances.