2010 Hurricane Forecast Scorecard

(May 28) -- The official start of the Atlantic hurricane season is Tuesday, and the major forecasts suggest we could be headed for a real whopper.

Earlier this week, the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration released its official forecast, predicting a very active season that could produce 14 to 23 named storms, and three to seven hurricanes that hit Category 3 or higher.

The NOAA's forecast is in sync with other major forecasters -- AccuWeather, Colorado State University and WSI, a Weather Channel company. According to those three, we could see 15 to 18 named storms.

NOAA

No, this map is not a harbinger of doom. It's a display of all major hurricane tracks in the North Atlantic from 1859 to 2007.

To put things in perspective, the Atlantic had an average of 9.6 named storms per year from 1950 to 2000. The average for 2000 to 2009 soared to 15.

Last year was comparatively quiet, with just nine named storms. Why are forecasts for this season so different? The Atlantic's surface is exceptionally warm, and a La Nina may develop in the Pacific, cooling waters there, scientists say. La Ninas are associated with higher hurricane activity in the Atlantic.

Only time will tell if the predictions will come to pass. The chart below compares the four forecasters' projections for this season, and shows how accurate they have been for the past three seasons (the only years for which statistics from all of them were available). As the season winds down -- it officially ends Nov. 30 -- we'll review the forecasts again and see how they did.

Sources:accuweather.com, colostate.edu, noaa.gov, Reuters, wsi.com