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The Grid

Atlantic Has Had Active Hurricane Seasons Since 1995

Jun 3, 2010 – 10:50 AM
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Paul Yeager

Paul Yeager Contributor

(June 3) -- Government and private forecasters have predicted that the 2010 Atlantic hurricane season will be active, and one of the reasons cited is that the Atlantic is in is a long-term pattern conducive to hurricane development in the Atlantic basin.

This multidecade cycle, which began in 1995, lasts for 20 or 30 years -- perhaps even longer. Seasonal factors might add to or subtract from the factors associated with the active cycle, so the amount of hurricane activity is variable from year to year even though overall numbers remain higher than average.

The National Hurricane Center considers a season with 9.4 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), including 5.6 hurricanes and 1.9 major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher), to be average.

Compared to those averages, 13 of 15 seasons since 1995 have been more active than average in terms of the number of named storms, and 11 seasons have been more active than average in terms of the number of hurricanes. Fourteen of 15 seasons have had more major hurricanes than the average of 1.9; however, four seasons had just two hurricanes, so the number of seasons with an above-average number of major hurricanes is better estimated at 10 years.

Note: Major hurricanes are Category 3 or higher.
Source: National Hurricane Center
Filed under: Science, The Grid
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