Losing Turkey: A Key US Ally Moves Away

ISTANBUL (June 5) -- As Turkey furiously mourns its dead from the Israeli commando assault on the Mavi Marmara, the political transformation the country has undergone in recent years has never been so apparent. Once prized as NATO's stalwart eastern flank against the communist threat, Turkey now sees its red flag raised by thankful Palestinians in Gaza and its diplomacy praised by Iran.

"Turkey is not the Turkey of yesterday," said Henri Barkey of the Carnegie Endowment for International Peace. "It has interests that are new and not necessarily in concert with us."

That change has been under way for many years, of course, wrought by the end of the Soviet Union, two unpopular U.S.-led wars in neighboring Iraq and the 2002 election of the pro-Islamic Justice and Development Party, or AKP. But the current crisis underscores the depth of Turkey's alienation from the West, which goes far beyond righteous outrage at the plight of the Palestinians.

The 2009 Pew Global Attitudes Project found that only 14 percent of Turks viewed the United States favorably, the lowest percentage of any of the 25 countries surveyed. In comparison, 19 percent held a favorable view of Iran.

Though material for U.S. troops in Iraq still arrives from a base in southern Turkey, the NATO member increasingly seeks its own solutions for international issues instead of toeing the line set forth by the West. Last month Turkey joined Brazil in negotiations with Iran over its uranium enrichment program, a move that ran counter to the sanction-seeking U.S.

The governing AKP gave a hero's welcome to the pro-Palestinian activists returning from Israeli detention after their relief flotilla. The activists were flown into the VIP section of Istanbul's Ataturk Airport to be greeted by throngs of cheering supporters.

Government condemnation of the Israeli action -- which led to the death of nine Turkish citizens in international waters -- was harsh and incessant. On Friday President Abdullah Gul said the country's once warm relations with Israel had been irreparably damaged. "From now on, Turkish-Israeli ties will never be the same," Gul declared to thousands attending a public funeral in Istanbul for some of the slain activists. "This incident has left an irreparable and deep scar."

The Turkish Justice Ministry is establishing a commission to define all possible legal actions that can be taken against Israel, and the Ankara government is considering suspending all military ties with Jerusalem.

Any move against Israel enjoys enthusiastic support among the Turkish public. "The military relations should be stopped immediately," says Fatima Varol, a volunteer with the Istanbul-based IHH Humanitarian Relief Foundation, which sponsored the Mavi Marmara. "Killing and murder is daily life over there. Every child is ready for his father to be killed."

While the government's protests are what one would expect when citizens are killed abroad, the AKP politicians' fiery speeches in Istanbul and Ankara may bring a political advantage, too. Turks are rallying behind the AKP much as Americans did behind the Bush administration in the days after 9/11.

The mildly Islamist AKP, initially elected in 2002 and then re-elected in 2007, has provided Turkey with the most effective government in decades. AKP successfully stopped years of hyperinflation and enacted mass banking reforms to establish the country as one of the few growing economies in the region. Yet support for the party has decreased in recent years, largely because of unemployment inside Turkey. The party took only 39 percent of the vote in local elections last year.

The burst of national feeling over Gaza could also help the AKP in its ongoing struggle against the Turkish military, which has long viewed itself as the protector of Turkey's secular state, and against the highly autonomous judiciary. Both have been hostile to the greater role of Islam the AKP has countenanced, from allowing headscarves in schools to overtly supporting Islamic interests in its foreign policy.

The Turkish military used to stage coups against governments it didn't like, and while its influence has decreased over the last 20 years, it remains a formidable political force. In 2008, the judiciary attempted to ban the AKP on grounds that it was attempting to Islamize Turkey's secular government. The AKP is fighting to further protect itself from those secular instances.

The government's full-blown rhetoric over the Gaza-bound ships may be part of that struggle. Yet too strong a reaction might be detrimental in the long run, because the AKP can ill afford full alienation from the Turkish military, or for that matter from the U.S. and the European Union, which remain key military and economic allies.

"Some are asking if this is really in Turkey's natural interests," says Andrew Finkel, a columnist for the Istanbul newspaper Today's Zaman. "It might succeed in weakening or ending the embargo of Gaza, but at the end of the day [the U.S.] might not thank Turkey. They might turn around and shoot the messenger."

Whatever the outcome of the controversy over Gaza, Turkey has staked out a forceful and independent position on Mediterranean and Middle East policy that none of its allies, new or old, can ignore.