Whose Heads Will Roll Next in BP Disaster?

WASHINGTON (June 10) -- By Day 51 of the BP oil spill, only two people have lost their jobs because of their role in the worst environmental disaster in U.S. history. Surely there must be more people to blame.

With President Barack Obama looking for some "ass to kick" as he plans his fourth trip to the Gulf Coast since the April 20 oil rig explosion, many observers agree that more than just two government bureaucrats will eventually pay for the damage done there.

Elizabeth Birnbaum, the director of the U.S. Minerals Management Service and the government's top oil regulator, was forced out last month amid charges of lax oversight and an all-too-cozy relationship with the industry by the agency it oversees. Chris Oynes, associate director of Offshore Energy and Minerals Management at the agency, also chose this time to retire after 35 years of service.

Their departures came as Interior Secretary Ken Salazar announced the agency would be split up because its missions to oversee energy development and enforce safety regulations conflict.

Salazar, who was Birnbaum's boss, has long been in the crosshairs of environmental groups that weren't too keen on his selection as chief conservation steward to begin with. Several dozen have called for his resignation. The former U.S. senator from Colorado, known for his swaggering cowboy hat and boots, has talked tough about BP, saying, "We will keep our boot on their neck until the job gets done." But there's no telling whether he too will soon ride off into the sunset.

Much will depend on what an independent commission finds out about who or what is to blame for the blowout on the Deepwater Horizon drilling platform.

"It would be nice to have a scapegoat, to have someone in handcuffs. But it's so much more complex than that," said Chris Skrebowski, a London-based oil industry consultant who began his career as a planner at BP. He said responsibility may lie not only with individuals but with equipment in what may have been a systemic failure.

Still, he told AOL News, "There will have to be some sacrificial heads, more than there have been already."

Jody Freeman, an environmental law professor at Harvard University, was White House counselor for energy and climate change until March. She said Birnbaum's ouster was "significant" but that the "natural place" to look for accountability is in the private sector. And not just at BP. Rig owner Transocean and subcontractor Halliburton may share blame for what went wrong as well.

"The easy thing to do is fire people," she said. "The harder thing to do is fix the system."

It's not likely that many will be canned while active cleanup goes on, but it is all but certain that more heads will roll. But whose? The most likely on the chopping block:

BP CEO Tony Hayward

Obama said he would have fired the "most hated -- and most clueless -- man in America" if only the BP chief had worked for him. Louisiana Rep. Charlie Melancon called for Hayward's head, one of the first members of Congress to publicly say it's time for him to go.

Historian Douglas Brinkley said Hayward has "insulted the Gulf South" by minimizing the damage of the oil spill even as BP has unleashed a PR blitz to convince the public it's doing the right thing.

Skrebowski said Hayward will probably keep his job until the end of the year, or "until the worst of the mess is sorted out. Once that is under control, it will be very difficult for him to remain."

BP Managing Director Robert Dudley

The American put in charge of the cleanup has clashed with administration officials over who is to blame for the offshore drilling disaster. His telling David Gregory on NBC's "Meet the Press" that Hayward was "doing a fantastic job" was akin to President George W. Bush famously telling his then-FEMA Director Michael Brown in the aftermath of Hurricane Katrina that, "Brownie, you're doing a heck of a job."

BP Chief Operating Officer Doug Suttles

After Hayward, Suttles may spend the most time in front of TV cameras giving BP's take on the situation. But he did himself no favors when he predicted that the oil spewing from the ocean floor would soon be reduced to "a relative trickle" and denied the existence of undersea oil plumes.

While other company executives seem to have "vanished," Skrebowski said, Suttles has been the "unfortunate BP man in North America" who has been thrown in to the fray and may, as such, eventually take the fall.

BP Chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg

Speaking of vanished, who is this guy? The chairman of the oil giant has kept such a low profile since the spill that some BP board members want him sacked. So far, the speculation has been confined to the British press, but pretty soon someone on this side of the oil-sullied pond may begin to notice.

'The Company Men'

If Svanberg is at the top of the accountability chain, then Donald Vidrine and Robert Kaluza, the "company men" on the oil rig on April 20, may be at the bottom. BP representative Vidrine was reported to have argued with the rig's operators hours before the fatal blowout. Kaluza has pleaded the Fifth Amendment to avoid testifying.