Gulf Oil Spill Estimates Doubled by US Scientists

(June 11) -- Just when it looked as if the Gulf of Mexico oil spill couldn't get much worse, it has -- big time. Based on figures gathered by a panel of scientists, the estimate of oil gushing from the ruptured BP well each day has been doubled.

The new data, based on improved techniques, puts the estimate of leaking oil at 25,000 to 30,000 barrels a day, or nearly 1.3 million gallons every 24 hours.

By comparison, the Exxon Valdez disaster of 1989, until now the worst of its kind in the U.S., gushed nearly 11 million gallons into Prince William Sound, Alaska.

Under intense political pressure from the White House to make financial retributions its top priority, BP has decided to defer paying dividends to shareholders, according to The Times of London.

While final approval is not expected to come before next month, The Times said it had learned that the money for the second quarter will be put into an escrow account until its total liabilities are known.

The new estimate, by a government panel called the Flow Rate Technical Group, was made before BP cut a pipe called a riser last week so it could install a new cap on the well. A new estimate is being prepared to cover the period after that step was taken.

The numbers have varied widely since an explosion killed 11 rig workers on April 20 and sent oil gushing toward the Louisiana coast, and later as far as Florida. BP has issued its own estimates, some more positive and others more negative, and the government has increased its own numbers three times.

Speaking at a briefing in Washington after the new numbers were released, Adm. Thad Allen of the Coast Guard, the Obama administration's point man in the spill, said reliable numbers on the severity of the crisis are hard to get.

"I think we're still dealing with the flow estimate," he said. "We're still trying to refine those numbers." But he said experts still hoped to capture more of the spill as equipment is upgraded and made available.

The director of the United States Geological Survey, Marcia McNutt, who is also director of the technical group, said more detailed analysis of the video showing the gushing oil as well as the use of sonar equipment was used to arrive at the new estimates, The New York Times reported.

Two scientists from the Woods Hole Oceanographic Institution made the measurements on May 31, the Times said, but another team came up with even higher estimates, The Associated Press reported.

President Barack Obama, who has made three trips to the region to inspect the environmental damage and talk to some of the thousands of people affected by it, is scheduled to take part in a meeting of administration officials at the White House on Wednesday with BP Chairman Carl-Henric Svanberg.

The company, which hopes to increase the amount of oil it's capturing from the spill by next week, has been fighting off increasing criticism on both sides of the Atlantic. Its stock rose slightly in London today after dropping to a 14-year low in U.S. trading on Wednesday.

BP, one of Britain's biggest companies, plays a large role in almost every U.K. pension fund, The Times of London reported, and any move to suspend or defer dividend payments could send stocks down again and lead to public anger.

Credit Suisse says BP could end up paying as much as $15 billion to $23 billion to cover cleanup costs, plus $14 billion in claims, according to The New York Times.

But like most if not all oil companies, profits are high, with BP's net gain last year at $17 billion.

"This company, I think, will stay solvent," said Rep. Ed Markey, D-Mass., who is chairman of a committee looking into the disaster, adding, "And we're going to make sure that the shareholders wait until the victims are paid first."