Forecast for Atlantic Hurricane Season Upgraded

(June 21) -- Even though the first named storm in the Atlantic basin has yet to form, forecasters are becoming increasingly concerned about the danger of the 2010 season. In fact, the private forecasting company AccuWeather is predicting one of the five most active seasons since records began, according to an update to its hurricane season forecast.

Joe Bastardi, AccuWeather's chief hurricane meteorologist, expects 18 to 21 named storms (tropical storms and hurricanes), an increase from the original forecast of 16 to 18 storms. Only five seasons in the past 160 years have had 18 or more storms.

Bastardi expects at least eight of the named storms to make landfall in the United States, including six hurricanes and two to three major hurricanes (Category 3 or higher). The greatest threat for landfalls extends from the central Louisiana coast to Florida, which includes the area of the oil spill in the Gulf of Mexico, and then northward to the Carolinas.

At least three storms will affect the spill and activities related to it, according to Bastardi.

While many hurricane seasons wax and wane as meteorological factors change, this season is expected to start early and persist late into the year.

AccuWeather expects that the season will peak between Aug. 15 and Oct. 15, with six named storms in August and eight in September. During the height of the season, the storms might come in groups. "There could be a period where there is a group of naming, two or three going on at once and five in a 15- to 20-day period," according to Bastardi on AccuWeather.com.

Greater-than-normal tropical activity is also expected before and after the peak of the season.

The overall weather factors seen this year are similar to those in seasons that have been hyperactive since the current cycle of enhanced Atlantic hurricane activity began in 1995. The other years were 1998, 2005 and 2008.

The 1995 season had 19 named storms, including 11 hurricanes (five major ones), and the 2008 season had 16 named storms, including eight hurricanes (five major).

According to the National Oceanic and Atmospheric Administration, an average season is one with 9.4 named storms, 5.6 hurricanes and 1.9 major hurricanes.

The 2005 season, though, is the most notorious of all, with its record-breaking 28 named storms, including 15 hurricanes and seven major hurricanes. Hurricanes Katrina, Wilma and Rita combined to kill nearly 2,000 people (1,800-plus in Katrina alone) and cause nearly $170 billion in damage.

Similar overall weather conditions may not yield the same results, in terms of the number of storms and amount of damage, but they can be used as a way to gauge the potential of the season.