Future Poll: World War III, Cancer Cure Are on the Way

(June 22) -- On the plus side, by the year 2050 there will be a cure for cancer, bionic limbs will perform better than mere flesh-and-bone arms and legs and cloning will be used to bring back extinct animals. Oh, and computers will be able to converse among themselves like human beings.

On the downside, those same computers might be responsible for the expected third world war, won't be able to thwart a terrorist nuclear attack on the U.S. and will utterly fail to stop the major energy crisis that will play havoc with the world.

These are among the predictions made for the next 40 years by majorities of Americans, according to a poll released today by the Pew Research Center.

The survey of more than 1,500 adults taken in late April also suggests that Americans' world view has darkened a bit over a decade that opened with a recession and the worst terrorist attack in history, featured two wars that stymied U.S. military prowess and ended with a full-blown global financial crisis.

In April, 64 percent of respondents said they were optimistic for their lives and families over the next 40 years, and 61 percent were optimistic for the future of the U.S. But that's down from responses of 81 percent for respondents' lives and families and 70 percent for the country when the same survey was conducted in 1999. Pessimism for lives and families has climbed to 31 percent from 15 percent in that time, and for the U.S. future to 36 percent from 27 percent.

But the survey suggests Americans remain confident in a future filled with wonders that today are the stuff of fiction.

Eighty-one percent said computers will probably or definitely be able to converse like humans by 2050, 71 percent said there will be a cure for cancer, 66 percent expected artificial limbs that outperform natural ones, 63 percent predicted astronauts will land on Mars, 53 percent said ordinary people will travel in space and 50 percent said we will find evidence of life elsewhere in the universe.

While 51 percent said an extinct animal will probably or definitely be brought back by cloning, only 48 percent said humans will be cloned -- the same share that expected computer chips to be embedded in Americans for identification. And 42 percent said scientists will be able to tell thoughts from brain scans.

Among the threats to the country in the coming decades, another world war still seems probable to the most respondents (58 percent), followed closely by a major terrorist attack with a nuclear weapon (53 percent), while only 31 percent said an asteroid probably or definitely will hit the earth by 2050.

Among other menaces just over the horizon, 72 percent of Americans said there will be a major world energy crisis, and 66 percent expect the Earth to warm. Tellingly, younger people are more pessimistic about global warming (77 percent of 18- to 29-year-olds versus 61 percent of Americans 65 or older), and Republicans are much less worried about it than Democrats (48 percent versus 83 percent).

Americans are also divided on another subject that many associate with the end of the world, according to Pew: the return of Jesus Christ. Just over four in 10 respondents expect the Christian version of the messiah to show up by 2050, while 46 percent said this will probably or definitely not happen in that time.