Tropical Storm Alex Likely to Form This Weekend

(June 25) -- The development of Tropical Storm Alex, the first named storm of the 2010 Atlantic basin hurricane season, is looking increasingly likely for this weekend. The system first may be a threat for parts of Central America and the Yucatan Peninsula before potentially becoming the first hurricane of the season to churn in the Gulf of Mexico.

The possibility is stoking new fears about a big storm interacting with the gulf oil spill and hindering efforts to contain it.

After analyzing the data collected and monitoring the continuing strengthening of the system on Friday afternoon, the system was upgraded to a tropical depression, which is one step below a tropical storm. A depression is not assigned a name, but this is expected to reach tropical storm strength before moving inland over the Yucatan Peninsula later this weekend.

Tropical storm warnings have been issued for the east coast of the Yucatan Peninsula and the coast of Belize. A sustained wind of at least 39 mph is required for a storm to be designated a tropical storm. The depression, as of 6 p.m. EDT, had a sustained wind of 35 mph.

A sustained wind of 74 mph or greater is needed for a hurricane.

Regardless of its official classification, flash flooding is a threat in portions of Central America, the Yucatan Peninsula and the islands of the western Caribbean as the system slowly moves northwestward. Several inches of rain might fall during a short period of time. Flash flooding is especially dangerous in areas where the terrain is mountainous.

Flooding rain is typically a greater danger to life and property with a tropical depression or tropical storm than are wind and surf.

(Image courtesy of National Hurricane Center)

The expected interaction with the Yucatan Peninsula will weaken the system -- as is the case with all tropical-type systems -- but what remains of the system is likely to emerge over the open waters of the Gulf of Mexico by early next week. While it will take a day or so for the system to regain even its former strength, the potential for a stronger storm to ultimately develop next week remains because of much warmer-than-normal sea surface temperatures and generally conducive upper-level atmospheric conditions.

In other words, Hurricane Alex might be located in the Gulf of Mexico early next week.

It's too early to project where the hurricane (assuming it forms) might head. That will depend on how quickly the storm strengthens, its exact location when it emerges in the gulf and the influence of large-scale weather features across the United States at the time.