Hurricane Alex Coming, Raising Fears About Spill

(June 29) -- Tropical Storm Alex, packing sustained winds of 70 mph in the southwestern Gulf of Mexico, is expected to strengthen into the first hurricane of the season today and already has disrupted oil spill cleanup efforts farther north.

The National Hurricane Center is predicting that Alex will make landfall as a hurricane along the northern Mexico or southern Texas coast on Wednesday evening, with sustained winds of 90 to 100 mph. Hurricane warnings are in effect.

This track will keep the storm itself well to the south of the oil spill, but the combination of a high-pressure system to the east of the storm and the wind associated with Alex will create a stronger-than-normal onshore flow across the oil slick area into Wednesday. This increased flow will force oil deeper into coastal areas of Louisiana, Mississippi and Alabama, into beaches and marshes where the oil has not yet reached. The flow from the southeast will also push the oil along the Louisiana coast farther to the west.

Worsening conditions across the gulf this afternoon took their toll on efforts to contain the massive BP spill. According to The Associated Press, all the oil-skimming vessels off the coast of Louisiana have been ordered to return shore. There is also concern that rough seas could wash over booms and that the devices may need to be pulled from the water completely.

Between the time lost in collecting the oil due to the weather, along with the time to re-assemble the equipment and return to operations, a considerable amount of potential cleanup time would be lost.

Alex is not expected to track close enough to the oil spill area to interrupt BP's efforts to build a relief wells, which are considered to be the best hope for stopping the oil leak.

With an active hurricane season expected, delays such as these -- and even complete shutdown of operations -- will be a threat in the coming months.


This is the same general forecast path that the hurricane center has been issuing for several days, but the forecast cone has been shifted a little farther to the north in recent days. Since landfall is not expected until Wednesday evening, there is still a possibility for the storm to make landfall outside the forecast cone.

The current forecast projects the storm to strengthen into a Category 2 storm, with a sustained wind of close to 100 mph at its peak, which might be near the time of landfall. Forecasters, though, have a better record of predicting the track of hurricanes than the intensity. The intensity is often a battle between a number of competing factors, and it's difficult to pinpoint which of these factors will ultimately dictate whether the storm will strengthen or weaken.

For Alex, the farther to the north the storm tracks, the longer it will remain over the water, increasing the chance that the storm could intensify more than currently forecast. The intensity will also depend on the amount of dry air pulled into the system (if any) and whether the storm is able to continue to strengthen as it approaches the coast as some well-organized storms do when the water is warm and upper-level conditions are favorable.

While not currently anticipated, Alex could become a major hurricane -- defined as a Category 3 or higher storm, which would have a sustained wind of at least 111 mph.

With questions remaining to be answered, it's important that residents in -- and near -- the warned areas closely follow the latest forecast information and any instructions of local authorities.