NASA Boosts Efforts to Spot Earth-Smashing Asteroids

(June 30) -- Killer asteroids, beware. NASA is watching.

Astronomers have long worried that a large space rock would remain undetected until it was about to smash into Earth, in what might be called the "Armageddon" scenario. In that 1998 blockbuster starring Bruce Willis, the rock in question is described as "the size of Texas."

The truth is that even a boulder measuring 200 feet across -- as wide as a soccer field -- could kill thousands.

Now, however, the odds of an apocalypse-by-asteroid are shrinking. The effort to find and study space rocks is entering a golden age, and that effort could grow even more if the Obama administration has its way.

Among the new and rejuvenated eyes on the sky:

• In January, a NASA satellite known as WISE began scanning the heavens, in part to find undetected asteroids. It has already spotted more than 80, including 13 that come close enough to Earth's orbit to be deemed "potentially hazardous" in the distant future. WISE is expected to find more such objects before it shuts down in the fall.
• In May, a powerful new observatory in Hawaii began looking for asteroids. The observatory, known as Pan-STARRS 1, was funded primarily by the Air Force, but NASA paid for the computer system needed to track asteroids and will pay some of the operating costs.
• In August, the Arecibo observatory in Puerto Rico will receive from NASA $2 million that will save its asteroid-tracking program from potential closure or downsizing. The program is key for calculating the exact path and size of worrisome asteroids.

Even without the Hawaiian telescope system, "what we've got right now is certainly the best capability we've ever had," says Lindley Johnson, head of NASA's program for near-Earth objects, and the Hawaiian system will "provide us more capability."

NASA hopes to avoid being put on the spot, as it is in the film "Armageddon" when the president asks why no one noticed the massive asteroid about to plow into Earth.

"Well, our object-collision budget's a million dollars," replies the chief of NASA, played by Billy Bob Thornton. "That allows us to track about 3 percent of the sky, and, begging your pardon, sir, but it's a big-ass sky."

The movie's budget figure isn't too far off. In 2010, NASA will spend $5.8 million on what is officially dubbed "near-Earth object observations." The agency has proposed spending $20 million on the program in 2011, a nearly $15 million increase. Congress is now considering the proposal.

The White House has signaled it's on board. The Obama administration's space policy, released Monday, sets NASA the goal of working "to reduce the risk of harm to humans from an unexpected impact on our planet."

The Hawaiian observatory could make a huge difference in the risk that humans will perish in "an unexpected impact." If the facility works as well as scientists hope, it will be as powerful as all the other asteroid-survey telescopes put together, says Alan Harris, a planetary scientist from the Space Science Institute.

Most of the space rocks big enough to cause global catastrophe have been found, says Nick Kaiser, scientific chief of Pan-STARRS 1 and a professor at the University of Hawaii. He predicts his new observatory will "clean up" the asteroids ranging from roughly one-quarter mile to half a mile across, which hit once every million years or so.

"It may sound like a very small risk, but if one of those things is out there, the damage it could cause would be fantastic," he says.

The combined forces of the Hawaiian facility and existing facilities would spot half of all space rocks bigger than 1,000 feet after a decade of work, says Tim Spahr, director of the Minor Planets Center, the clearinghouse that catalogs asteroids and other small citizens of the solar system.

"That sounds great to me," he says. "We lower the risk quite a bit" -- perhaps by half -- "if we find those."

If a lethal asteroid can be detected, scientists could devise ways to deflect it. At the very least they could warn people in its path to get out of the way.

NASA's Johnson says it's "gratifying" to see this level of attention being paid to rocks that, in the 1990s, were regarded as Hollywood fodder rather than being worthy of serious federal dollars.

"When I first started on this, it still had a lot of laugh factor," he says. "You don't run into that anymore. Everyone I talk to now sees it as a real threat."