FanHouse recently broke the running back position down into five components, ranking each running back's upside, downside, injury history, performance history and strength of schedule on a 1-10 scale. Here, we'll reveal the combined results for each player. These rankings shouldn't act as a be-all, end-all draft guide, but it could definitely give you an idea of potentially great values, as well as players you may want to avoid.The composite ratings were determined by giving 30 percent weight each to a player's upside and downside ratings, 20 percent weight to a player's performance history, and 10 percent weight each to a player's schedule and injury history. This combination gave us a pretty impressive and definitive Tier 1. Each player will be listed with their composite ranking.
Tier 1
Maurice Jones-Drew (8.9), Adrian Peterson (8.6), Chris Johnson (8.5), Frank Gore (8.4), Michael Turner (8.1), Ray Rice (7.9), Steven Jackson (7.8), Ronnie Brown (7.7)
Now would I take MJD over Chris Johnson and Adrian Peterson? Actually, I may. His numbers were very similar to those of Peterson last year, and Jones-Drew has a much easier schedule, one that trumps Peterson's slightly higher rating in downside. Brown's inclusion in Tier 1 is shocking, but it reminds us that all he has to do is stay healthy to be a fantasy monster. His upside as a fantasy RB2 is equal to none.
Tier 2
Cedric Benson (7.5), DeAngelo Williams (7.4), Jonathan Stewart (7.4), Ryan Grant (7.1), Jamaal Charles (7.0), Ryan Mathews (6.9), Beanie Wells (6.9)
Benson leads Tier 2 thanks to better-than-average marks across the board. Williams has a better performance history than his Panthers teammate, but a lower rating in injury history. Mathews' biggest knock is his performance history, for which he gets an in-the-middle five for being a rookie. If you weight schedule strength over performance history, Mathews rockets to the top of the tier. I'll take that gamble in Round 2/3, and I think a fantasy team that drafts Andre Johnson first, Mathews second and Brown third could be phenomenal this year.
Tier 3Knowshon Moreno (6.6), Rashard Mendenhall (6.5), Pierre Thomas (6.3), Thomas Jones (6.2), Ricky Williams (6.2), Joseph Addai (6.2), Shonn Greene (6.0)
Mendenhall and Greene are thought to be solid picks late in the first round, but our Breakdown finds flaws. Both were given a nine for upside, and both have relatively good scores in the downside category. Mendenhall is hurt by 2008's injury and also by just a short history of good statistics. Greene has to deal with a two in performance history, as his most impressive performance came in the real postseason, and a very tough schedule. Conversely, Jones has a great performance history and a very easy schedule. Remember that when you're looking for an RB3.
Tier 4
Brandon Jacobs (5.8), Matt Forte (5.8), Jahvid Best (5.7), LeSean McCoy (5.6), Justin Forsett (5.4), Ahmad Bradshaw (5.2)
Jacobs and Bradshaw have nearly identical ratings across the board, but Jacobs has slightly better ratings in upside and downside, as he's the unquestioned goal-line back in New York. McCoy has a sizable downside in Philadelphia's pass-first offense, while Forsett's downside will come up -- and cause a significant rise in his composite rating -- if he were to be named the starter.
Tier 5
C.J. Spiller (4.9), Jerome Harrison (4.9), Felix Jones (4.8), Marion Barber (4.8), Reggie Bush (4.7), Julius Jones (4.7), Michael Bush (4.6), LaDainian Tomlinson (4.6), Arian Foster (4.6), Tim Hightower (4.6)
The biggest surprise here is Felix Jones. He has a pretty low rating in downside, because Marion Barber is still hanging around ready to steal carries if he looks strong. Jones also has a relatively poor injury history, not much of a performance history, and a hard schedule. This will have me avoiding the popular sleeper in all drafts in 2010.
Tier 6
Fred Jackson (4.5), Darren Sproles (4.5), Montario Hardesty (4.4), Clinton Portis (4.4), Ben Tate (4.4), Derrick Ward (4.3), Dexter McCluster (4.3), Darren McFadden (4.2), Jason Snelling (4.2), Steve Slaton (4.2), Correll Buckhalter (4.1)
Portis has a great downside rating compared to other Tier 6 backs, but he has to contend with a tough schedule, a poor performance in 2009 and a rough injury history. McCluster sneaks in here thanks in large part to a great schedule for a running back, but if he plays wide as expected that advantage will go away.
Tier 7
Brian Westbrook (4.0), Laurence Maroney (4.0), Donald Brown (3.9), Chester Taylor (3.8), Leon Washington (3.8), Kevin Smith (3.7), Deji Karim/Rashad Jennings (3.7), Anthony Dixon/Glen Coffee (3.6), Kevin Faulk (3.6), Mike Bell (3.6), Jerious Norwood (3.6), Bernard Scott (3.6), Larry Johnson (3.6), Fred Taylor (3.6), Marshawn Lynch (3.5), LenDale White (3.5), Mewelde Moore (3.5), Tashard Choice (3.5)
I rated a few more running backs, but looking at this list, it's probably best to stop here.
Below are the raw ratings for each category. Feel free to import them into a spreadsheet and adjust our composite formula to one that's more your liking.
| Upside | Downside | Injury | Perform | Schedule | |
| Maurice Jones-Drew | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 8 |
| Adrian Peterson | 10 | 8 | 10 | 10 | 2 |
| Chris Johnson | 10 | 7 | 10 | 10 | 4 |
| Frank Gore | 9 | 6 | 9 | 10 | 10 |
| Michael Turner | 10 | 7 | 7 | 8 | 7 |
| Ray Rice | 9 | 6 | 9 | 9 | 7 |
| Steven Jackson | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 9 |
| Ronnie Brown | 10 | 7 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| Cedric Benson | 9 | 6 | 8 | 8 | 6 |
| Jonathan Stewart | 10 | 5 | 10 | 7 | 5 |
| DeAngelo Williams | 10 | 5 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| Ryan Grant | 8 | 6 | 10 | 8 | 3 |
| Jamaal Charles | 8 | 4 | 10 | 7 | 10 |
| Ryan Mathews | 10 | 4 | 8 | 5 | 9 |
| Beanie Wells | 9 | 5 | 9 | 5 | 8 |
| Knowshon Moreno | 8 | 4 | 10 | 6 | 8 |
| Rashard Mendenhall | 9 | 5 | 6 | 6 | 5 |
| Pierre Thomas | 8 | 4 | 9 | 7 | 4 |
| Thomas Jones | 7 | 1 | 10 | 9 | 10 |
| Ricky Williams | 8 | 4 | 6 | 8 | 4 |
| Joseph Addai | 8 | 3 | 8 | 8 | 5 |
| Shonn Greene | 9 | 6 | 10 | 2 | 1 |
| Brandon Jacobs | 8 | 4 | 9 | 5 | 3 |
| Matt Forte | 8 | 3 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Jahvid Best | 8 | 5 | 7 | 5 | 1 |
| LeSean McCoy | 9 | 3 | 10 | 4 | 2 |
| Justin Forsett | 7 | 2 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| Ahmad Bradshaw | 7 | 3 | 9 | 5 | 3 |
| Carnell Williams | 7 | 2 | 6 | 5 | 7 |
| Willis McGahee | 7 | 1 | 9 | 5 | 7 |
| C.J. Spiller | 7 | 2 | 10 | 5 | 2 |
| Jerome Harrison | 7 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 3 |
| Felix Jones | 7 | 3 | 7 | 4 | 3 |
| Marion Barber | 7 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 3 |
| Reggie Bush | 7 | 2 | 8 | 4 | 4 |
| Julius Jones | 6 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 9 |
| Michael Bush | 7 | 1 | 10 | 3 | 6 |
| LaDainian Tomlinson | 7 | 1 | 9 | 6 | 1 |
| Arian Foster | 6 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 5 |
| Tim Hightower | 5 | 1 | 10 | 5 | 8 |
| Fred Jackson | 6 | 1 | 10 | 6 | 2 |
| Darren Sporles | 5 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 9 |
| Montario Hardesty | 7 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 3 |
| Clinton Portis | 6 | 3 | 6 | 4 | 3 |
| Ben Tate | 6 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 5 |
| Derrick Ward | 6 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 7 |
| Dexter McCluster | 4 | 1 | 10 | 4 | 10 |
| Darren McFadden | 7 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| Jason Snelling | 5 | 1 | 9 | 4 | 7 |
| Steve Slaton | 5 | 1 | 7 | 6 | 5 |
| Correll Buckhalter | 5 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 8 |
| Brian Westbrook | 6 | 1 | 6 | 4 | 5 |
| Laurence Maroney | 6 | 1 | 6 | 5 | 3 |
| Donald Brown | 6 | 1 | 7 | 3 | 5 |
| Chester Taylor | 6 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 3 |
| Leon Washington | 5 | 1 | 5 | 3 | 9 |
| Deji Karim | 5 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 8 |
| Kevin Smith | 5 | 1 | 6 | 6 | 1 |
| Rashad Jennings | 5 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 8 |
| Anthony Dixon | 4 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 10 |
| Kevin Faulk | 5 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 3 |
| Mike Bell | 5 | 1 | 8 | 4 | 2 |
| Jerious Norwood | 5 | 1 | 7 | 2 | 7 |
| Bernard Scott | 5 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 6 |
| Glen Coffee | 4 | 1 | 9 | 1 | 10 |
| Larry Johnson | 6 | 1 | 8 | 2 | 3 |
| Fred Taylor | 5 | 1 | 5 | 5 | 3 |
| Marshawn Lynch | 5 | 1 | 9 | 3 | 2 |
| LenDale White | 5 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 5 |
| Mewelde Moore | 5 | 1 | 10 | 1 | 5 |
| Tashard Choice | 5 | 1 | 10 | 2 | 3 |




