Teams Hold Their Breath as Rookies Come Knocking

In just under three weeks, Jerry Rice and Emmitt Smith (above) will be inducted into the Pro Football Hall of Fame, no-brainer selections voted in last February.

They were hardly no-brainers when they were drafted -- in 1985 and 1990 respectively -- living examples as training camps start of why fans never know what they will get from the rookies their teams selected last April.

The draft is an imperfect process. So is free agency. Which is why there are surprise teams every year -- some teams obviously select players better than others on a regular basis but even they miss.



Share "You never know what a young guy will do once he gets all that money in his pocket,'' says Gil Brandt, who's been scouting and drafting for more than 50 years and was the personnel director of the Cowboys from 1960-89, building them into the power that became "America's Team.''

"He can have all the talent in the world, but once he makes his money, you don't know the incentive remains until you see it.''

And you never know about injuries -- the Giants' defense fell apart last season in large part because of injuries to safeties and to the two free-agent signees, Chris Canty and Michael Boley, who had made folks suggest that the Giants had one of the best offseasons in the league.

Back to the draft.

"You never know what a young guy will do once he gets all that money in his pocket."
- Gil Brandt The most recent example of the negative side is JaMarcus Russell, No. 1 overall pick in 2006 by the Raiders and currently unemployed. He's the best example of "bust'' along, perhaps, with Ryan Leaf, No. 2 in 1998 by the Chargers after Peyton Manning went to the Colts.

Even after just three years, no one has really looked at Russell since he was released by Oakland -- he's currently listed on the roster of the Omaha Nighthawks.

But quarterbacks are always the most noticed because they play the highest-profile position and we all know when a high pick fails. Or a high-profile college QB: Tim Tebow was No. 25 overall last April by Denver but his jerseys are best sellers already. He will be one of the most scrutinized rookies in camp this season.

Back to Rice and Smith.

Rice set records combining with quarterback Willie Totten at Mississippi Valley State in an offense that regularly put up 60-70 points a game against Division I-AA opponents. The lower level of competition was one strike against him and the other was his non-football speed -- he ran a 4.6 40-yard dash the combine, an institution that has created plenty of busts and missed plenty of stars.

Same with Smith. He didn't run especially fast in shorts and he didn't have optimal size for a running back, 5-9, 200 pounds at the time he was drafted.
At the 49ers, Bill Walsh, whose personnel skills may have been better than his coaching skills, loved Rice. The rest of San Francisco's brain trust wasn't as convinced -- one scout had him rated as a fifth-round choice. But others saw him as a first-rounder -- Brandt and Dallas wanted him -- and the 49ers picked 28th and last in that 1985 first round because they had won the Super Bowl the previous season.

So Walsh went looking for trading partners, found New England at 16, and flipped picks with the Patriots, one pick before the Cowboys were about to take Rice. He was the third wide receiver chosen that season -- behind Al Toon by the Jets and Eddie Brown by the Bengals.

Brown had first-year success -- he was offensive rookie of the year. Rice, obviously, had career success -- he was still playing at a high level when Brown was with the Albany Firebirds of the Arena League.

Five years later, Jerry Jones owned the Cowboys and Brandt, Tom Landry and Tex Schramm were gone -- Brandt to work for the NFL.

Jimmy Johnson, another coach whose personnel skills were highly developed, had recruited Smith for Miami though he went to Florida instead. He had a raft of draft picks from dealing Herschel Walker and, like Walsh, he traded up, to No. 17, to get him.

That 1990 draft, by the way, was the perfect example of how luck as much as skill often rules personnel selection.

The first pick, by Indianapolis, was Jeff George (right), the highly skilled quarterback with no leadership ability and a sour personality -- he is best known for a sideline argument with coach June Jones in 1996 while with Atlanta but as a rookie, he once was caught by cameras chewing out Kirk Lowdermilk, a veteran center, on a botched snap, as much a no-no as his fight with Jones.

The second pick was Penn State running back Blair Thomas by the Jets and the fourth was linebacker Keith McCants by Tampa Bay, a heralded star at Alabama but a flat-out NFL bust. Thomas, plagued by injuries, rushed for 2,238 yards in parts of six seasons, or exactly 16,117 fewer than Smith, chosen 15 picks later.

One pick after McCants, San Diego took Junior Seau, who has a good chance to join Rice and Smith in the Hall of Fame someday (a process put off because he kept delaying his retirement.) One pick before Seau, Seattle took defensive tackle Cortez Kennedy, who has been an HOF finalist the past few years and has a good chance of making it in the next few.

This doesn't imply that Sam Bradford, the first pick this year by St. Louis, is the next Jeff George.

And Ndamukong Suh, No. 2 to Detroit, seems to be closer to Cortez Kennedy than he might be to a defensive dud like McCants.

But the ups and downs of past draft picks is always advisable to keep in mind.

Especially when training camps open with such high hopes.