Juan Manuel Marquez or Juan Diaz? The Experts Weigh In

On Saturday, in an HBO-televised pay per view main event, 36-year-old WBO and WBA lightwight (135 pounds) champion, Juan Manuel Marquez (pictured above), will put his crown on the line against 26-year-old slugger, Juan Diaz in a rematch of February's 2009, Fight of the Year.

The counter-punching Marquez (50-5-1) came from behind to win their first bout, stopping Diaz (35-3, 17 KOs) in the ninth round for his 37th career knockout.

Each is coming off of a loss during which he fought at a higher weight class.

Marquez lost a one-sided, unanimous decision to unbeaten welterweight (147 pounds) Floyd Mayweather, and Diaz, a lopsided decision to junior welterweight (140 pounds) Paulie Malignaggi, whom he had beaten the same way in an earlier match up.

But which Juan will win on Saturday night?

FanHouse sought the opinions of 11 boxing experts who shared their thoughts on what the outcome of Marquez-Diaz II could be.


Bob Canobbio, CompuBox, Inc.
Juan Manuel Marquez TKO 10 Juan Diaz
Diaz is ten years younger, yet there's more mileage on his odometer. Diaz volume is down as well. He averaged just 49 punches thrown per round in his two fights vs. Malignaggi after averaging 68 per round in his previous 14 fights.

Marquez was blown away statistically by Mayweather, landing just 12 percent of his punches, but he wasn't beat up. Marquez will counterpunch his way to a tenth round stoppage due to cuts.





Scott Crouse, Co-Hosts Ballroom Boxing Report, Baltimore's ESPN Radio 1300AM
Juan Manuel Marquez TKO 10 Juan Diaz
Juan Diaz and Juan Manuel Marquez will be fighting for their careers on July 31. Marquez is almost 37 and is coming off of the most lop-sided defeat of his career against Mayweather, while Diaz has lost three out of his last five with one of those wins being questionable at best.

The winner of this fight gets another big fight payday, while the loser must seriously question the wisdom of even continuing his career. Diaz would appear to have the greater motivation, but given his recent losses and the amount of punishment he received in those losses, he has the appearance of a spent fighter. No amount of motivation will be able to erase that.

Diaz hit Marquez with everything in the first several rounds of their first fight, yet Marquez was able to survive, change his strategy, wear Diaz down and knock him out. I can't imagine Diaz doing anything the second time around that Marquez hasn't already seen and overcome.

Diaz will probably try to conserve some energy and box more in the early rounds, so I expect a slightly more tactical fight this time. However, I think the result will be similar. So it's Marquez TKO 10.


Steve Farhood, Showtime boxing analyst
Juan Manuel Marquez W 12 Juan Diaz
I like Juan Manuel Marquez on points. I saw a significant decrease in energy and aggression from Juan Diaz in the second Paulie Malignaggi fight. If he can't bring it the way he used to, he will get outboxed from here to Mexico City.


Norm Frauenheim, 15rounds.com
Juan Manuel Marquez KO 7 Juan Diaz
It's a tough pick, simply because so much is at stake for both. The likeable Juan Diaz says he wants to be an attorney, but his last two fights – a controversial win followed by a loss to Paulie Malignaggi -- indicate he is headed out of the ring and into law school.

Diaz struggles against good boxers. The loss to Malignaggi in a rematch doesn't say much for his chances in a rematch against Marquez. Meanwhile, the tough Marquez is anxious to deliver evidence that he deserves another shot at Manny Pacquiao.

Also, Marquez desperately needs a victory that helps him and his fans forget about how shopworn he looked in a dull loss to Floyd Mayweather Jr. As a blown-up welterweight, Marquez was slow against a Mayweather, who looked as big as a middleweight.

Marquez also looked old. At lightweight, Marquez should re-discover speed, youth and a career.



Lee Harris, Co-Host of 'In the Corner' Boxing Podcast
Juan Manuel Marquez KO 11 Juan Diaz
My pick is Marquez by 11th-round knockout. I think this fight will be more competitive than the most people believe. In their first bout, Diaz looked to be overwhelming Marquez in the early rounds. Diaz's volume punching and aggression was causing big problems for Marquez.

Ultimately, Diaz's aggression led to plenty of openings for Marquez's accurate counter punches, which led to his ninth-round KO loss. This time around, I think Diaz will box a smarter fight, being aggressive in spots. But overall, he'll work on keeping his hands up, his head moving, and utilizing intelligent pressure.

Marquez, however, is the better overall fighter, with better technique, defense, and ring generalship. Even at age 36, and with Diaz fighting smarter this time around, I still see Marquez winning. I see Marquez figuring out the puzzle in front of him and scoring a dramatic, 11th round KO to send Diaz to his fourth loss in his past six fights.


Kevin Iole, Yahoo! Sports
Juan Manuel Marquez W12 Juan Diaz
I'm sure Marquez isn't going to be the same guy he was when he fought Diaz last year. The beating he took from Mayweather clearly had to take something out of him.

That said, he's fighting at a more comfortable weight, and he's one of the smartest fighters in the game. He's crafty enough and sly enough to find a way to pull out a decision victory.


Steve Kim, MaxBoxing.com
Juan Manuel Marquez KO 10 Juan Diaz
I like Marquez to win this. Bottom line, he figured him out the last time and knocked him out. Also, Diaz just looks like a shop-worn fighter at this stage.


Kieran Mulvaney, ESPN Boxing and Reuters
Juan Manuel Marquez mid-to-late round KO over Juan Diaz
Unless Juan Manuel Marquez has lost a lot since February 28 of last year, I see him doing much the same to Juan Diaz as he did last time out -- but perhaps with greater haste. Diaz only knows one way to fight, but it's a way that exacts a toll on a fighter.

And there are signs that, with age and wear, it is proving less effective. I expect Diaz to come forward because that is what he does, and for Marquez to respond with straight counters because that is what he does. I expect Marquez to gradually take over en route to a mid-to-late rounds stoppage.


Lance Pugmire, The Los Angeles Times
Juan Manuel Marquez W 12 Juan Diaz
Juan Manuel Marquez knows how to beat Juan Diaz, and Diaz has yet to show he can lower the risk in his aggressive style. Marquez's counter-punching should decide the fight again. Marquez by decision.


Rick Reeno, BoxingScene.com
Juan Manuel Marquez KO 10 Juan Diaz
Unless he gets old overnight, I see Juan Manuel Marquez winning in the same fashion. The fight will be competitive early, but Marquez will take things over, once again, in the late rounds.

Marquez will break Diaz down before he knocks him out in the 10th round.


Michael David Smith, FanHouse.com
Juan Manuel Marquez UD 12 Juan Diaz
My pick is Marquez by unanimous decision. I think the way Marquez was thoroughly dominated by Floyd Mayweather may have made some fans forget just what a great fighter Marquez is.

Marquez is still the same man who fought essentially even with Manny Pacquiao for 24 rounds, and I think Marquez will win a fairly one-sided decision over Diaz.


The experts unanimously envision Juan Manuel Marquez as a repeat winner against Juan Diaz, 11-0.