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(July 27) -- First it was Arizona's new law. And now, according to a new computer model, climate change is poised to take its turn at raising the stakes around immigration reform. It suggests that some 6.7 million Mexicans could be driven into the United States by 2080 as rising temperatures wither food crops in their home country.
Critics, as well as the study's authors themselves, acknowledge that the model oversimplifies reality, relying on broad assumptions about Mexican and American societies projected decades into the future to reach its conclusions. But they add that they'll be refining their formulas as their research moves forward and maintain that the fundamental takeaway holds regardless.
"The model shows that climate-driven refugees could be a big deal in the future," Princeton atmospheric scientist Michael Oppenheimer, one of the co-authors, told National Geographic.
The way the report links a traditional liberal hot-button issue (climate change) with a traditional conservative one (illegal immigration) recalls the way some retired and active military officials have done in connecting climate change to national security. For James Woolsey, former head of the CIA, the mutual insularity of liberal and conservative camps makes understanding the relationships between seemingly disparate problems more difficult.
"The tree-hugger is the ghost of John Muir, the father of the environmental movement in the United States, and he is only worried about carbon. And the hawk is the ghost of General George S. Patton, and he's only worried about terrorism and attacks on national security. It all ended up as the same problem," he said in a 2009 interview with the Jewish Policy Center. The Princeton findings suggest the same may prove true for the immigration debate as well.
Study: Climate Change May Boost Mexican Immigration to US
Jul 27, 2010 – 2:25 PM
Tagged: climate change, global warming, illegal immigration, immigration, immigration reform, mexican immigration, Mexico
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