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But not only is it too early to declare that the forecasts were hyped, this season is not even off to a particularly slow start. From a statistical standpoint, it's coming along at a pretty average pace.
Looking at the period of 1966-2009, the average number of named storms by Aug. 1 was fewer than three, and the average number of named hurricanes was fewer than one. A major hurricane, Category 3 or higher, was extremely rare during the first two months of the season.
Other very active seasons that were compared with this season in terms of overall weather conditions by private hurricane forecaster Joe Bastardi include 1995, 1998, 2005 and 2008. By Aug. 1, those seasons averaged just over four named storms, including fewer than two hurricanes. There were only three major hurricanes by Aug. 1 in those four seasons combined, including two in 2005 alone.
The current season trails those four seasons slightly, but even their numbers were not particularly high by the end of July.
(Image courtesy of National Hurricane Center)
The hurricane season typically becomes much more active in August and peaks in mid-September -- by which time the average is seven named storms and four hurricanes, two of which are major.
In those other very active seasons, the average number of named storms were five in August and four and a half in September. This included an average of nearly three hurricanes in August and just over three in September. Major hurricanes were common in those years, with a combined total of 10 during August and September.
During active hurricane seasons, hurricanes often continue through October and even into November, but August and September are typically the months that indicate how active the season is. And they will be this year as well.
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