Roto Rush: Mets' R.A. Dickey is the Real Deal

Poppin' out of the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.

R.A. Dickey.

Who would've thunk it? Perhaps the most surprising fantasy arm to come along in years, Dickey came within two outs of a complete-game shutout against the Cardinals on Thursday afternoon. Dickey held Pujols & Co. to just four hits while walking two over 8 1/3 frames to pick up his seventh win in 14 starts.

Thursday marked the second time Dickey's gone at least eight innings this season, and the seventh time he's gone at least seven. If not for a lack of run support, Dickey could be looking at an 11-1 record. He's been that good. A five-inning, five-earned-run outing against the Fish back on June 28 aside, Dickey's allowed three earned runs or fewer in 13 starts, two earned runs or fewer nine times, and one earned run or fewer in seven of his 14 starts. He's tossed bagels at opponents on five occasions. All this from a pitcher who had never posted an ERA below 4.62 or a WHIP below 1.48 heading prior to this season.

How's he been doing it? By keeping hitters off balance, that's how.

Not only does Dickey throw the majors' best knuckleball -- his knuckler is worth 6.8 runs above average according to Fangraphs - but his 84 mph heater has been almost as effective. In fact, his fastball -- worth 4.4 RAA -- has been better than Francisco Liriano's, Tommy Hanson's, and Jon Lester's, despite the huge disparity in speed. That's what happens when you throw a 76 mph knuckleball almost 90% of the time. Hitters have no clue when the fastball is coming, making it just as effective as an offering in the low-to-mid 90s.

More proof of Dickey's deception can be found in his batted ball data. Fifty-seven percent of balls in play against Dickey have been ground balls (by far, the best GB rate of his career), while only 15.8% have been line drives (second-best LD rate of his career). Put simply, few, if any, have been able to square up on him this season. Hence, why his .283 BABIP is hardly a fluke.

Some will point to Dickey's strand rate (79.2 LOB%) and homer rate (6.5% HR/FB) as signs that a correction is due. And they're probably right. But that doesn't mean Dickey will turn into a pumpkin when the clock strikes 12. Even if you strip away the luck factor, he's still been a low-3.00 ERA pitcher (3.25 FIP). As long as Dickey's still pitching half his games in the cavernous Citi Field, consistently keeping the ball on the ground, and limiting baserunners (two walks or fewer in 12 of 14 starts), he should be able to offset any damage a regression in his strand/homer rates might inflict.

Dickey's strikeouts leave much to be desired (6.0 K/9), but otherwise, he's been the real deal.

Believe that.

Bits From the Box Scores:

• David Price (6 1/3 IP, 2 ER, 9 K) picked up his 14th victory with a win over the Tigers on Thursday, but Detroit starter Rick Porcello was the story. Porcello allowed four earned runs (one of which came around to score on reliever Phil Coke's watch) in 7 1/3 innings to take the loss, but he also struck out eight batters while allowing just five hits and two walks. He has a 3.38 ERA, 1.03 WHIP and 16/6 strikeout-to-walk split in 21 1/3 innings since being recalled from the minors on July 17.

• Matt Capps retired the Braves in order on Thursday afternoon to pick up his 26th save of the season. Washington then proceeded to trade Capps to the Minnesota Twins after the game. Lots of fantasy fallout here. Capps is expected to take over at closer for the Twins, pushing Jon Rauch into a setup role. For the Nats, rookie Drew Storen should take over ninth-inning duties.

• Robinson Cano hit his 20th home run of the season on Thursday. With a .328 average and 70 RBI, he's clearly been the top two-sacker in the fantasy game (although Rickie Weeks has been giving him a run for his money lately).

• The Rockies busted out the whooping sticks on the Pirates, with Dexter Fowler (3-for-5, two RBI, SB), Clint Barmes (2-for-5, three RBI, SB), and Carlos Gonzalez (2-for-5, HR, RBI) leading the charge. Car-Go's blast was his 19th of the season. If he can run a little bit more the next two months (he's got 14 steals), he could join the elusive 30/30 club. And to think, people coveted Andrew McCutchen more than this kid on draft day.

• Anibal Sanchez tossed a complete game, one-hit shutout against the Giants on Thursday to earn his eighth win of the season, and now has a sparkling 3.37 FIP to match his 3.33 ERA. His 1.35 WHIP is a little to high for our liking, but with a friendly schedule in August, he makes for a nice back-of-the-rotation type in 12-team mixers.

• Mat Latos tossed five strong innings (2 H, ER, 7 K) against the Dodgers but it was Heath Bell who was credited with the W after the Padres scored the game-winning run in the bottom of the ninth. Latos has given up more than two earned runs just once since the beginning of June (15 starts). Spell it with me now: S-T-U-D.

• I've got a feeling Joe Saunders is going to like the National League. In his first start since being traded to Arizona, Saunders limited the Phillies to two earned in seven innings. Raul Ibanez went deep for the ninth time this season, something he'll have to do a lot more of if he wants to stave off elimination when Shane Victorino comes back. It should be noted that Domonic Brown didn't get the start against the lefty Saunders. We'll see if that becomes a pattern.

• Michael Young went 4-for-4 and Vlad Guerrero collected RBI No. 80 to lead the Rangers over the A's on Thursday. Josh Hamilton tallied three more base knocks to up his average to .362. He's now hitting .438 with 47 RBI since June 1. Ridic. C.J. Wilson won his 10th game. With a 3.10 ERA and 1.22 WHIP, he's been one of the best wire grabs of the year. Note: The Rangers optioned Chris Davis to Triple-A to make room for newcomer Jorge Cantu. For the A's, Rajai Davis picked up two hits and two stolen bases and is now hitting .275 with 32 swipes. He's at .321/.357/.528 in 15 July contests, proving the hamstring injury that kept him out of action for a couple of days last week is clearly behind him.

• Paul Konerko (25), Carlos Quentin (20), and Ramon Castro (5, 6) all went deep against the Mariners on Thursday. It was especially nice to see Quentin get off the schneid; he'd gone into a little bit of a funk since hurting his hand/wrist a couple weeks ago. Seattle's Michael Saunders went 2-for-4 and is 17-for-54 (.315 BA) with a homer and a couple of steals in July. He's not quite 12-team material, but deeper leaguers should immediately make this add. There's some power/speed upside in Saunders' bat.

• If Brian Matusz can't get it done against the Royals (3 1/3 IP, 5 ER, 4 BB, 3 K), it's time to cut bait in re-draft leagues. Alfredo Simon picked up save No. 15 after the Orioles rallied to win it in the 11th, but it should be noted that Mike Gonzalez threw 1 1/3 perfect innings, struck out one, and hit 95 on the gun. I say it's only a matter of time before he gets his job back. Offensively speaking, Nick Markakis went deep for just the seventh time this season while Corey Patterson launched his sixth. That right there tells you how disappointing Markakis has been this season.

The Afflicted: Jacoby Ellsbury (ribs) went 0-for-3 with the Red Sox rookie league squad on Thursday. He's 3-for-7 with a steal in three games and is expected to head to Triple-A this weekend. He could be back with the Sox sometime next week. Carlos Santana was plunked on the knee Thursday and may get the day off on Friday, but otherwise he should be fine. Huston Street (abdomen) tossed a scoreless frame against the Pirates on Thursday. He looks good to go but might also miss a couple days with his wife expecting any day now. Ben Zobrist missed Thursday with the same back ailment that forced him to exit early from Wednesday's contest. He says he's not feeling much better and may miss the weekend series against the Yanks. His teammate, B.J. Upton (ankle), hopes to return to the lineup on Friday. A's closer Andrew Bailey has been diagnosed with the dreaded intercostal strain and is expected to go on the 15-day DL on Friday. Michael Wuertz and Craig Breslow should fill in at closer while he's out.

Locking Your Lineup: No day games on Friday. Philly and Washington get things started at 7:05 p.m. EST.