Roto Rush: Is Tommy Hunter for Real?

Rangers starter Tommy Hunter tossed 6 1/3 shutout innings against the Seattle Mariners on Thursday night to win for the ninth time in 12 starts. It was a bounceback effort for Hunter, who had allowed eight earned runs in three innings his last time out. He now sports a 3.10 ERA and 1.19 WHIP to go along with his pristine 9-1 record -- an excellent follow-up to an impressive 2009 campaign that saw him win nine games with a 4.10 ERA and 1.30 WHIP in 19 starts as a rookie.

Good pitcher right? All surface measures seem to indicate he's the real deal. Toss in expected offensive support from a Rangers lineup that can score runs in bunches, and one of the AL's best bullpens (second in ERA, third in FIP), and it's easy to fall in love with both Hunter's production and potential.

Something tells me we need to investigate further, though, so let's take a deeper look at what Hunter's accomplished thus far.

Strike one: Hunter doesn't miss many bats. His 4.77 K/9 is well below the major league average and ranks as the 17th-worst mark among all major league starters with at least 70 innings pitched.

Strike two: Hunter is a flyball pitcher (42.6 FB%). That's NOT a good thing when you pitch half your games in Coors Field AL (Rangers Ballpark at Arlington).

Ball one: If there's one thing Hunter does well, it's limit the free passes. His 2.26 BB/9 ranks in the top 25 among MLB starters with at least 70 IP.

Foul ball: Hunter's been exceptionally lucky this season. Despite a league-average line drive rate (19.7 LD%), Hunter's batting average on balls in play, or BABIP, is .261. That's about 40 points lower than the MLB average.

Ball two: There has been research to suggest that the type of curveball Hunter throws (a high one - h/t to Joe Pawlikowski @ Fangraphs), can induce weaker contact. Although his league-average line-drive rate this season, and his higher-than-league-average LD% last year (20.3 LD%) seem to dispute this "high-curve" effect.

Foul ball: Hunter has stranded more than 80% of runners on base. His 82.2 LOB% is about 10 percentage points higher than the league average. This cannot be sustained.

Foul ball: Hunter's 8.9% HR/FB rate is three percentage points lower than the league average. Then again, he posted an 8.3% HR/FB last season and his career mark is just 9.4%, so maybe this is his norm.

Strike three: As you can clearly see, the count is not at all in his favor. Stripping away luck and poor defense, Hunter's FIP is 4.56. His xFIP, which assumes a league-average homer rate, is 4.86. His FIP (4.40) and xFIP (4.79) last season were just as poor.

In summary, unless you sincerely believe Hunter can maintain a .260-ish BABIP and continue to limit the long ball (as a fly-ball pitcher who can't miss bats in Texas), you can bet his ERA will be closer to 5.00 than 4.00 from now through the end of September. Otherwise -- considering he won't contribute much in strikeouts -- you're basically leaving yourself at the mercy of his win totals. And that, my friends, is rarely a good strategy.

As an owner, you have two choices. You can either save Hunter for spot starts against weaker teams, or sell to someone who's buying his W-L record and ERA as signs of future success. If the schedule holds, he'll face the Yankees and Tampa Bay in his next two starts (with starts against the Yanks and Toronto in September).

Bits From the Box Scores:

• In his first start since being shipped to Pittsburgh from Los Angeles in the Octavio Dotel deal, James McDonald whirled a gem: 14 first-pitch strikes, eight strikeouts, four singles, and one walk over six frames. Doing so against the Colorado Rockies makes the performance even more noteworthy. McDonald's always had swing and miss stuff (9.7 K/9 in the minors) but his fastball/change combo was working overtime on Thursday night. I have a feeling Pirates fans are gonna like this kid.

• Blame the Suncoast Dome Tropicana Field for the Rays loss to the Twins on Thursday night (although most Rays fans watching the game probably prefer to blame home plate umpire Chris Guccione). Pinch-hitter Jason Bartlett hit his first career grand slam to tie the game 6-6 in the bottom of the eighth, but a Jason Kubel pop-up "single" off the dome's infamous catwalk proved the game-winner in the top of the ninth. The Twins scored two runs in the frame off the previously invincible Joaquin Benoit, who saw his ERA and WHIP jump to 1.14 and 0.64, respectively. Matt Capps saved his first game in a Twins uniform with a perfect ninth, while the resurgent Wade Davis took a step backwards, allowing six earned in six innings. Let the calls for his head, and Jeremy Hellickson's ascension to the Rays rotation, begin.

• A Mark Kotsay two-run triple off Jose Valverde in the bottom of the 11th handed the White Sox a 6-4 victory over the Tigers on Thursday night. Valverde's now allowed nine earned runs in his last four appearances. The team says he's been dealing with the flu in recent days, but one has to wonder if his 60-pitch outing on July 30 is coming back to bite him. Valverde wouldn't have even pitched in this game if Bobby Jenks hadn't surrendered a pinch-hit, three-run homer to Ryan Raburn in the ninth. It was only Jenks' third blown save of the season, but his 5.13 ERA may prompt Ozzie Guillen to turn to the J.J. Putz/Matt Thornton combo next time a save opp presents itself.

• Break up the Orioles! Nick Markakis hit his eighth home run of the season (his fifth since July 1) and Jake Arrieta tossed 7 2/3 innings of two-run ball to give the O's a three-game sweep over the Halos on Thursday evening. Arrieta didn't pick up the win thanks to Mike Gonzalez and Jason Berken each allowing runs in the eighth, but a Cesar Izturis RBI-single off Francisco "wannabe K-Rod" Rodriguez sent the O's home victors.

• Daisuke Matsuzaka threw eight fabulous innings against the Indians on Thursday, allowing just seven baserunners (five hits, two walks) while striking out six to pick up his eighth victory of the season. A Shin-Soo Choo solo shot in the first -- Choo's first since coming off the DL July 23 -- was the only blemish on his record. Dice-K's won three straight and sports a 2.48 ERA, 1.10 WHIP, and 26:11 K/BB over his last five turns.

• Jair Jurrjens (6 IP, 2 ER, 3 K) out-dueled Tim Lincecum (6 1/3, 3 ER, 7 K) to even his record to 4-4. Eric Hinske and Alex Gonzalez each went deep in the contest while Billy Wagner worked around an Andres Torres (3-for-5, R, RBI) single in the ninth to collect his 26th save in 31 chances.

• Phillies backstop Carlos Ruiz went 3-for-5 with three RBI, including a walk-off homer in extra innings to lead the Phillies over the Marlins 5-4. Batting .347 since July 1 with a season line of .298/.395/.443, Ruiz clocks in as the seventh-ranked catcher in the fantasy game over the last month. Sounds like a Carlos Santana replacement to me. Brad Lidge pitched a scoreless ninth to pick up save No. 12. He's now gone three straight appearances without allowing a run. That's progress.

• Multiple shots rang out in the nation's capital on Thursday night, and a Kennedy was involved. Adam launched his third long ball, Ryan Zimmerman added two (20, 21) and Roger Bernadina chipped in with his seventh. Unfortunately, all four homers were solo shots and weren't enough to lead the Nats to victory (Arizona won 7-4). Barry Enright won his third game for the snakes, yielding two earned runs over six frames. He's given up two earned runs or fewer in six of his seven starts. Adam LaRoche went 3-for-5 with an RBI in the contest and has officially begun his traditional second-half tear (11-for-23 with three homers and 7 RBI over his last five contests). Amazingly, he's still available in almost half of all leagues.

• The Padres scored three runs in fourth inning off Dodgers starter Chad Billingsley to halt his scoreless innings streak at 25. They would tack on two more runs before it was all said and done to beat L.A. 5-0. Kevin Correia threw 5 2/3 shutout innings to pick up his eighth victory, but hasn't looked anything like the pitcher he did last season when he posted a 3.91 ERA and 1.30 WHIP. Keep an eye on him in his next start or two to see if he'll be anything of value down the stretch. Chris Denorfia hit a two-run homer off new Dodgers reliever Octavio Dotel in the ninth. It's too bad the Dodgers traded for Ryan Ludwick because Denorfia was really starting to heat up. On a down note, Padres slugger Adrian Gonzalez went 0-for-5 and is now two for his last 20. He hasn't homered in 10 games and has only one long ball in his last 17.

The Afflicted: Kevin Youkilis will miss the rest of the season with a torn muscle in his thumb. He'll have season-ending surgery this week. Mark Reynolds sat out Thursday after leaving Wednesday's game early with dizziness. He got beaned with a 95-mph fastball on Tuesday but a concussion's been ruled out. He may sit on Friday just to make sure he's OK. Russell Martin is likely out for the season after tearing the labrum in his hip. A.J. Ellis and Brad Ausmus will fill-in for him. Indians backstop Carlos Santana will have season-ending surgery on his knee. Atlanta's Kris Medlen has a partially torn UCL in his pitching elbow and may be headed for Tommy John surgery. Mike Minor has been recalled from Triple-A to take his place on the roster. He's worth a grab in most formats. An MRI revealed inflammation in Nyjer Morgan's hip; he was placed on the 15-day DL on Friday (retro'd to August 4). Ian Kinsler won't be cleared for baseball activities until he has another MRI on his injured groin. It doesn't look like he'll be returning when eligible on August 13.

Locking Your Lineup: Cubs and Reds at 2:20 p.m. EST. Everyone else will play in primetime.

Poppin' out of the box scores and right into your cubicle, the Roto Rush is your double espresso shot of fantasy baseball advice every weekday.